Mombasa Elite vs Police Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Mombasa Elite vs Police preview

In the match between Mombasa Elite and Police, the 1X2 probabilities show Mombasa Elite at 26%, a draw at 33%, and Police at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs at a 14% probability.

Mombasa Elite's expected goals stand at 0.87, while Police has a higher figure of 1.15. The chances of Over 2.5 goals are 33%, and both teams to score is at 41%. Mombasa Elite's recent form includes two losses followed by one win, while Police has not won in their last six matches, recording five draws and one loss. These factors could affect the outcome of the match.

Mombasa Elite vs Police: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mombasa Elite	Draw	Police
Model	26%	33%	41%
Market	—	—	—
Published	26%	33%	41%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mombasa Elite and Police expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.87Mombasa Elite

1.15Police

Total expected goals: 2.02
Attack rating (Mombasa Elite / Police): 0.98 / 1.03
Defence rating (Mombasa Elite / Police): 1.13 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mombasa Elite vs Police score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.6% 14.0% 8.8% 3.4% 1.3% 1 10.2% 14.6% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1% 2 5.0% 5.7% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 3 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mombasa Elite goals. Columns: Police goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mombasa Elite vs Police goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 61%

Over 2.5 33%

Over 3.5 15%

Both teams to score: 41%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mombasa Elite vs Police

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mombasa Elite	26%	3.83
	Draw	33%	3.04
	Police	41%	2.44
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	33%	3.05
	Under 2.5	67%	1.49
Both teams to score	Yes	41%	2.44
	No	59%	1.69
Double chance	1X (Mombasa Elite or draw)	59%	1.70
	12 (either side)	67%	1.49
	X2 (draw or Police)	74%	1.35
Handicap -1	Police win by 2+	18%	5.56
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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