Nairobi United vs APS Bomet preview
Nairobi United faces APS Bomet with a 24% chance of winning for the home side, while APS Bomet has a 38% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.69 for Nairobi United and 0.93 for APS Bomet.
Nairobi United has drawn their last four matches, while APS Bomet has shown better form with two wins in their last three games. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 22%, and both teams to score is at 31%. This suggests a low-scoring match, but if either team finds their rhythm, the outcome could change.
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet: model vs market
| Source | Nairobi United | Draw | APS Bomet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 37% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 37% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Nairobi United and APS Bomet expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.62
- Attack rating (Nairobi United / APS Bomet)
- 1.14 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Nairobi United / APS Bomet)
- 0.95 / 0.58
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nairobi United goals. Columns: APS Bomet goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nairobi United vs APS Bomet
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 24% | 4.10 |
| Draw | 37% | 2.69 | |
| APS Bomet | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.19 |
| No | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nairobi United or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| X2 (draw or APS Bomet) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | APS Bomet win by 2+ | 15% | 6.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nairobi United and APS Bomet recent form
Nairobi United
1W 4D 1L
APS Bomet
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nairobi United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
APS Bomet away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Nairobi United at home only, APS Bomet away only.
Nairobi United vs APS Bomet head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Nairobi United 1 · draws 2 · APS Bomet 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | APS Bomet | 0-0 | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2026-02-04 | Nairobi United | 1-2 | APS Bomet | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-03-16 | APS Bomet | 0-0 | Nairobi United | Super League |
| 2024-11-17 | Nairobi United | 1-0 | APS Bomet | Super League |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
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- Migori Youth v Mathare United — match page 2026-10-24
- Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- GOR Mahia vs Bandari 2026-10-24
- 3K v Murang'a SEAL — match page 2026-10-25
- Mombasa Elite vs Police — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- AFC Leopards v Shabana — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Nairobi United, previous: Shabana – Nairobi United, 2026-10-18
- Nairobi United, next: Nairobi United vs Tusker: odds and pick
- APS Bomet, previous: APS Bomet v GOR Mahia analysis
- APS Bomet, next: Police vs APS Bomet: odds and pick