AFC Leopards vs Shabana Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

AFC Leopards vs Shabana preview

AFC Leopards face Shabana with a 1X2 probability of 42% for Leopards, 35% for a draw, and 23% for Shabana. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 17%. While AFC Leopards have a higher expected goals figure of 1.07 compared to Shabana's 0.72, the match could see a different outcome if Shabana improves their recent form, which includes 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 27%, while both teams to score is at 35%. AFC Leopards have won both of their last two encounters against Shabana, who are still looking for their first win in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty in the expected outcome.

AFC Leopards vs Shabana: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AFC Leopards	Draw	Shabana
Model	42%	35%	23%
Market	—	—	—
Published	42%	35%	23%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.72.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

AFC Leopards and Shabana expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07AFC Leopards

0.72Shabana

Total expected goals: 1.80
Attack rating (AFC Leopards / Shabana): 1.21 / 0.71
Defence rating (AFC Leopards / Shabana): 1.02 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AFC Leopards vs Shabana score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.9% 10.7% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 1 16.5% 14.2% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% 2 9.6% 6.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 3 3.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: AFC Leopards goals. Columns: Shabana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AFC Leopards vs Shabana goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 35%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AFC Leopards vs Shabana

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AFC Leopards	42%	2.37
	Draw	35%	2.88
	Shabana	23%	4.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.72
	Under 2.5	73%	1.37
Both teams to score	Yes	35%	2.84
	No	65%	1.54
Double chance	1X (AFC Leopards or draw)	77%	1.30
	12 (either side)	65%	1.53
	X2 (draw or Shabana)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	AFC Leopards win by 2+	18%	5.62
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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