Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar preview
In the match between Ulinzi Stars and Mara Sugar, the 1X2 probabilities are 33% for Ulinzi Stars, 34% for a draw, and 33% for Mara Sugar. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 15%. Both teams have similar expected goals at 0.99, suggesting a tight contest.
While both teams to score has a probability of 41%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 32%, recent form shows Ulinzi Stars with 2 wins in their last 5 matches and Mara Sugar with 3 wins in their last 5. Ulinzi Stars has not won against Mara Sugar in their last 2 encounters, which could impact their confidence. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the expected outcomes.
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar: model vs market
| Source | Ulinzi Stars | Draw | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ulinzi Stars and Mara Sugar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.98
- Attack rating (Ulinzi Stars / Mara Sugar)
- 1.06 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Ulinzi Stars / Mara Sugar)
- 1.00 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ulinzi Stars goals. Columns: Mara Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Mara Sugar | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ulinzi Stars or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Mara Sugar) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win by 2+ | 13% | 7.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ulinzi Stars and Mara Sugar recent form
Ulinzi Stars
3W 1D 2L
Mara Sugar
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ulinzi Stars at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Mara Sugar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Ulinzi Stars at home only, Mara Sugar away only.
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Ulinzi Stars 1 · draws 1 · Mara Sugar 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Mara Sugar | 2-1 | Ulinzi Stars | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-10-05 | Ulinzi Stars | 1-2 | Mara Sugar | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-05-04 | Mara Sugar | 1-1 | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League |
| 2025-01-12 | Ulinzi Stars | 1-0 | Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
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Before and after this match
- Ulinzi Stars, previous: Homeboyz v Ulinzi Stars analysis
- Ulinzi Stars, next: Mombasa Elite – Ulinzi Stars, 2026-10-24
- Mara Sugar, previous: Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite: odds and pick
- Mara Sugar, next: Shabana v Mara Sugar analysis