Migori Youth vs Mathare United Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Migori Youth vs Mathare United preview

Migori Youth face Mathare United with a 37% chance of winning compared to 28% for Mathare United. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs with a 14% probability. Migori Youth's expected goals stand at 1.03, while Mathare United's is lower at 0.87.

However, the match could deviate from this forecast. Both teams to score has a 39% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 30%, indicating that there is potential for more action than expected. Recent form shows Migori Youth with a draw and Mathare United with a mixed record of L-D-W-L-W-L. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.

Migori Youth vs Mathare United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Migori Youth	Draw	Mathare United
Model	37%	34%	28%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	34%	28%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Migori Youth and Mathare United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Migori Youth

0.87Mathare United

Total expected goals: 1.90
Attack rating (Migori Youth / Mathare United): 1.00 / 0.88
Defence rating (Migori Youth / Mathare United): 1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Migori Youth vs Mathare United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.3% 11.6% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 1 14.1% 14.7% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% 2 8.0% 6.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 3 2.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Migori Youth goals. Columns: Mathare United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Migori Youth vs Mathare United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 58%

Over 2.5 30%

Over 3.5 13%

Both teams to score: 39%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Migori Youth vs Mathare United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Migori Youth	37%	2.69
	Draw	34%	2.91
	Mathare United	28%	3.52
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	30%	3.38
	Under 2.5	70%	1.42
Both teams to score	Yes	39%	2.59
	No	61%	1.63
Double chance	1X (Migori Youth or draw)	72%	1.40
	12 (either side)	66%	1.52
	X2 (draw or Mathare United)	63%	1.59
Handicap -1	Migori Youth win by 2+	15%	6.63
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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