Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo preview
Dordrecht faces VVV Venlo with a 27% chance of winning compared to VVV Venlo's 50%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which reflects VVV Venlo's stronger expected goals at 2.75 against Dordrecht's 1.43.
The high probability of Over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams to score at 72% suggests a dynamic match. However, Dordrecht's recent form shows inconsistency with two losses in their last three games, which could impact their performance against a more stable VVV Venlo side.
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo: model vs market
| Source | Dordrecht | Draw | VVV Venlo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 18% | 65% |
| Market | 35% | 25% | 41% |
| Published | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| Edge | -4% | -2% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices VVV Venlo below our published probability: +6.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +11.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VVV Venlo, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht | 3.00 | 2.70 | -0.30 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.75 | -0.05 |
| VVV Venlo | 2.09 | 2.30 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dordrecht and VVV Venlo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.18
- Attack rating (Dordrecht / VVV Venlo)
- 0.79 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Dordrecht / VVV Venlo)
- 1.28 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dordrecht goals. Columns: VVV Venlo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dordrecht | 30% | 3.31 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| VVV Venlo | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dordrecht or draw) | 53% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or VVV Venlo) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | VVV Venlo win by 2+ | 45% | 2.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dordrecht and VVV Venlo recent form
Dordrecht
2W 1D 3L
VVV Venlo
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dordrecht at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
VVV Venlo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dordrecht at home only, VVV Venlo away only.
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Dordrecht 5 · draws 0 · VVV Venlo 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | VVV Venlo | 3-1 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-10-03 | Dordrecht | 2-0 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2025-03-14 | Dordrecht | 4-0 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-10-18 | VVV Venlo | 2-3 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2024-02-16 | Dordrecht | 1-0 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-12-08 | VVV Venlo | 3-1 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2023-02-17 | Dordrecht | 1-2 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-10-14 | VVV Venlo | 0-1 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2022-01-30 | VVV Venlo | 4-2 | Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| 2021-09-05 | Dordrecht | 0-1 | VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
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Before and after this match
- Dordrecht, previous: Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht prediction
- Dordrecht, next: SC Genemuiden – Dordrecht, 2026-10-28
- VVV Venlo, previous: VVV Venlo – Jong AZ, 2026-10-16
- VVV Venlo, next: VVV Venlo v Vitesse analysis