ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa: model vs market
| Source | ŁKS Łódź | Draw | Polonia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 33% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Warszawa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.01
- Attack rating (ŁKS Łódź / Polonia Warszawa)
- 0.80 / 1.04
- Defence rating (ŁKS Łódź / Polonia Warszawa)
- 0.71 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ŁKS Łódź goals. Columns: Polonia Warszawa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ŁKS Łódź | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Polonia Warszawa | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ŁKS Łódź or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or Polonia Warszawa) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Warszawa win by 2+ | 12% | 8.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Warszawa recent form
ŁKS Łódź
3W 1D 2L
Polonia Warszawa
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ŁKS Łódź at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Polonia Warszawa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: ŁKS Łódź at home only, Polonia Warszawa away only.
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: ŁKS Łódź 1 · draws 1 · Polonia Warszawa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Polonia Warszawa | 0-1 | ŁKS Łódź | I Liga |
| 2025-08-23 | ŁKS Łódź | 2-2 | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec 2026-10-30
- Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-31
- Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page 2026-10-31
- Polonia Bytom vs Odra Opole — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Stal Rzeszów v Puszcza Niepołomice — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- ŁKS Łódź, previous: Warta Poznań v ŁKS Łódź analysis
- Polonia Warszawa, previous: Polonia Warszawa v Korona Kielce analysis