Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice: model vs market
| Source | Stal Rzeszów | Draw | Puszcza Niepołomice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Stal Rzeszów and Puszcza Niepołomice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Stal Rzeszów / Puszcza Niepołomice)
- 1.13 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Stal Rzeszów / Puszcza Niepołomice)
- 1.17 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stal Rzeszów goals. Columns: Puszcza Niepołomice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Rzeszów | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stal Rzeszów or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Puszcza Niepołomice) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stal Rzeszów win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Stal Rzeszów and Puszcza Niepołomice recent form
Stal Rzeszów
4W 0D 2L
Puszcza Niepołomice
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stal Rzeszów at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puszcza Niepołomice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stal Rzeszów at home only, Puszcza Niepołomice away only.
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Stal Rzeszów 0 · draws 1 · Puszcza Niepołomice 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 4-1 | Stal Rzeszów | I Liga |
| 2025-08-16 | Stal Rzeszów | 2-2 | Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec 2026-10-30
- Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-31
- Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page 2026-10-31
- Polonia Bytom vs Odra Opole — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Stal Rzeszów, previous: Arka Gdynia v Stal Rzeszów analysis
- Puszcza Niepołomice, previous: Puszcza Niepołomice v Wisla Plock analysis