Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice preview
In the upcoming match between Lechia Gdansk and Unia Skierniewice, the 1X2 probabilities show Lechia Gdansk at 64%, while Unia Skierniewice sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Lechia Gdansk has an expected goals figure of 2.36 compared to Unia Skierniewice's 1.13, indicating a strong attacking performance from the home side.
However, recent form could affect the outcome. Lechia Gdansk has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Unia Skierniewice has only 1 win in their last 6, with 4 losses. Despite the strong numbers for Lechia Gdansk, any unexpected defensive errors or an improved performance from Unia Skierniewice could change the dynamics of the match.
Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice: model vs market
| Source | Lechia Gdansk | Draw | Unia Skierniewice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 53% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lechia Gdansk below our published probability: +2.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lechia Gdansk, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia Gdansk | 1.81 | 1.72 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.90 | +0.15 |
| Unia Skierniewice | 3.58 | 3.90 | +0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lechia Gdansk and Unia Skierniewice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Lechia Gdansk / Unia Skierniewice)
- 1.31 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Lechia Gdansk / Unia Skierniewice)
- 1.02 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lechia Gdansk goals. Columns: Unia Skierniewice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lechia Gdansk | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Unia Skierniewice | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lechia Gdansk or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Unia Skierniewice) | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lechia Gdansk win by 2+ | 40% | 2.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lechia Gdansk and Unia Skierniewice recent form
Lechia Gdansk
4W 0D 2L
Unia Skierniewice
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lechia Gdansk at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Unia Skierniewice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lechia Gdansk at home only, Unia Skierniewice away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec 2026-10-30
- Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-31
- Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Lechia Gdansk, previous: Lechia Gdansk – Jagiellonia, 2026-10-28
- Unia Skierniewice, previous: Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom prediction