Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów preview
In the I Liga match between Pogoń Siedlce and Ruch Chorzów, the 1X2 probabilities show Ruch Chorzów at 53% and Pogoń Siedlce at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an expected goals figure of 1.64 for Ruch Chorzów compared to 0.90 for Pogoń Siedlce.
Ruch Chorzów is in better recent form with 4 wins and 2 draws, while Pogoń Siedlce has 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 47%, and both teams to score is at 49%. A surprise could come if Pogoń Siedlce manages to improve their attacking performance significantly.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów: model vs market
| Source | Pogoń Siedlce | Draw | Ruch Chorzów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 27% | 54% |
| Market | 22% | 25% | 52% |
| Published | 22% | 26% | 53% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ruch Chorzów, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Siedlce | 3.89 | 4.05 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.60 | +0.08 |
| Ruch Chorzów | 1.77 | 1.74 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pogoń Siedlce and Ruch Chorzów expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Pogoń Siedlce / Ruch Chorzów)
- 0.97 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Pogoń Siedlce / Ruch Chorzów)
- 1.16 / 0.59
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pogoń Siedlce goals. Columns: Ruch Chorzów goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 22% | 4.61 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Ruch Chorzów | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pogoń Siedlce or draw) | 47% | 2.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Ruch Chorzów) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ruch Chorzów win by 2+ | 30% | 3.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pogoń Siedlce and Ruch Chorzów recent form
Pogoń Siedlce
2W 0D 4L
Ruch Chorzów
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pogoń Siedlce at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Ruch Chorzów away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pogoń Siedlce at home only, Ruch Chorzów away only.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Pogoń Siedlce 2 · draws 4 · Ruch Chorzów 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Pogoń Siedlce | 2-1 | Ruch Chorzów | I Liga |
| 2025-08-08 | Ruch Chorzów | 0-2 | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga |
| 2025-02-17 | Pogoń Siedlce | 1-1 | Ruch Chorzów | I Liga |
| 2024-08-02 | Ruch Chorzów | 1-1 | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga |
| 2021-12-01 | Pogoń Siedlce | 1-1 | Ruch Chorzów | II Liga - East |
| 2021-07-30 | Ruch Chorzów | 1-1 | Pogoń Siedlce | II Liga - East |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec 2026-10-30
- Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-31
- Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page 2026-10-31
- Polonia Bytom vs Odra Opole — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Stal Rzeszów v Puszcza Niepołomice — match page 2026-11-02
- Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- Pogoń Siedlce, previous: Tychy 71 vs Pogoń Siedlce: odds and pick
- Pogoń Siedlce, next: Pogoń Siedlce v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki analysis
- Ruch Chorzów, previous: Znicz Pruszków vs Ruch Chorzów prediction
- Ruch Chorzów, next: Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów: odds and pick