Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza Prediction & Betting Tips 31/10/2026

Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza preview

In the match between Miedz Legnica and Nieciecza, the 1X2 probabilities show Miedz Legnica at 41%, Nieciecza at 31%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Miedz Legnica has an expected goals figure of 1.50, while Nieciecza stands at 1.29.

Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 53%. However, Miedz Legnica's recent form is concerning with only 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Nieciecza has won 4 of their last 6. This difference in form could impact the match outcome.

Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Miedz Legnica	Draw	Nieciecza
Model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	25%	33%
Published	41%	26%	33%
Edge	0%	+1%	0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded 2026-10-26 — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Miedz Legnica, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 2.19Now 2.20 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Miedz Legnica	2.19	2.20	+0.02
Draw	3.58	3.60	+0.02
Nieciecza	2.75	2.75	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Miedz Legnica and Nieciecza expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50Miedz Legnica

1.29Nieciecza

Total expected goals: 2.79
Attack rating (Miedz Legnica / Nieciecza): 0.97 / 1.23
Defence rating (Miedz Legnica / Nieciecza): 0.79 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 6.7% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9% 1 8.0% 13.1% 7.7% 3.3% 1.4% 2 6.9% 8.9% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3 3.5% 4.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 1.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Miedz Legnica goals. Columns: Nieciecza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 53%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Miedz Legnica vs Nieciecza

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Miedz Legnica	41%	2.42
	Draw	26%	3.86
	Nieciecza	33%	3.06
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53%	1.89
	Under 2.5	47%	2.12
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.74
	No	42%	2.36
Double chance	1X (Miedz Legnica or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Nieciecza)	59%	1.71
Handicap -1	Miedz Legnica win by 2+	21%	4.82
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Miedz Legnica and Nieciecza recent form

Miedz Legnica 1W 2D 3L

Nieciecza 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Miedz Legnica at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-2-2
Win rate: 43%
Goals for / match: 1.57
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 7

They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Nieciecza away

Record (W-D-L): 2-2-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.67
Goals against / match: 1.83
Clean sheets: 0 of 6

They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Miedz Legnica at home only, Nieciecza away only.

Other Matchday 13 fixtures

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec 2026-10-30
Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page 2026-10-31

Before and after this match

Miedz Legnica, previous: Polonia Warszawa – Miedz Legnica, 2026-10-23
Nieciecza, previous: Olimpia Grudziądz vs Nieciecza prediction

Prediction snapshot Miedz Legnica to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Miedz Legnica