Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań preview
In the I Liga fixture between Podbeskidzie and Warta Poznań, the 1X2 probabilities show Warta Poznań at 39%, slightly ahead of Podbeskidzie at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an 11% chance, indicating a tight match.
Both teams to score stands at 48%, suggesting that while goals are possible, it’s not a certainty. Podbeskidzie’s expected goals are 1.05, while Warta Poznań’s are 1.24, reflecting their recent form. Podbeskidzie's last five matches include 3 draws and 2 losses, while Warta Poznań has won 3 of their last 5. These factors could influence the outcome, making it a challenging match to predict.
Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań: model vs market
| Source | Podbeskidzie | Draw | Warta Poznań |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 31% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 31% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Podbeskidzie and Warta Poznań expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Podbeskidzie / Warta Poznań)
- 0.83 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Podbeskidzie / Warta Poznań)
- 0.91 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Podbeskidzie goals. Columns: Warta Poznań goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Podbeskidzie | 32% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Warta Poznań | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Podbeskidzie or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Warta Poznań) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Warta Poznań win by 2+ | 17% | 6.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Podbeskidzie and Warta Poznań recent form
Podbeskidzie
2W 3D 1L
Warta Poznań
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Podbeskidzie at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Warta Poznań away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Podbeskidzie at home only, Warta Poznań away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec 2026-10-30
- Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-31
- Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Podbeskidzie, previous: Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów: odds and pick
- Warta Poznań, previous: Warta Poznań v ŁKS Łódź analysis