Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec preview
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has a 68% chance to win against Stal Mielec, who has a 13% chance, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 9%. The model predicts a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 61%.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's expected goals stand at 2.52, while Stal Mielec's is only 1.07. Recent form shows Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki with a mixed record of L-W-W-L-W-L, while Stal Mielec has struggled with L-W-L-L-D-D. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec: model vs market
| Source | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Draw | Stal Mielec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 2.09 | 2.09 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Stal Mielec | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Stal Mielec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki / Stal Mielec)
- 0.95 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki / Stal Mielec)
- 0.81 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki goals. Columns: Stal Mielec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Stal Mielec | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Stal Mielec) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win by 2+ | 38% | 2.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Stal Mielec recent form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
3W 0D 3L
Stal Mielec
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Stal Mielec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 3.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home only, Stal Mielec away only.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1 · draws 0 · Stal Mielec 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 1-2 | Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| 2025-09-19 | Stal Mielec | 1-2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza — match page 2026-10-31
- Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, previous: Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: odds and pick
- Stal Mielec, previous: Stal Mielec – Chrobry Głogów, 2026-10-24