Why this pick: Real Valladolid vs Leganes
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Valladolid 10, Leganes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Valladolid vs Leganes: model vs market
| Source | Real Valladolid | Draw | Leganes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Real Valladolid below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Real Valladolid and Leganes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Real Valladolid / Leganes)
- 1.14 / 0.57
- Defence rating (Real Valladolid / Leganes)
- 1.14 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Valladolid vs Leganes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Valladolid goals. Columns: Leganes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Valladolid vs Leganes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Valladolid vs Leganes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Valladolid | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Leganes | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.16 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Valladolid or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Leganes) | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Valladolid win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Real Valladolid and Leganes recent form
Real Valladolid
2W 2D 2L
Leganes
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Valladolid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leganes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Valladolid at home only, Leganes away only.
Real Valladolid vs Leganes head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Real Valladolid 1 · draws 1 · Leganes 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Real Valladolid | 3-2 | Leganes | Segunda División |
| 2026-01-11 | Leganes | 3-0 | Real Valladolid | Segunda División |
| 2025-05-24 | Leganes | 3-0 | Real Valladolid | La Liga |
| 2024-08-28 | Real Valladolid | 0-0 | Leganes | La Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Celta de Vigo II vs Cordoba — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Albacete vs Sabadell 2026-10-31
- Eldense vs Granada — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon 2026-11-01
- Burgos vs Castellón 2026-11-01
- Tenerife v FC Andorra — match page 2026-11-01
- Real Oviedo vs Las Palmas 2026-11-02
- Mallorca v Cadiz — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Real Valladolid, previous: Covadonga v Real Valladolid analysis
- Leganes, previous: Trival Valderas vs Leganes prediction