Tenerife vs Girona: model vs market
| Source | Tenerife | Draw | Girona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Published | 32% | 30% | 39% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tenerife vs Girona odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Girona, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife | 3.01 | 2.88 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.14 | -0.01 |
| Girona | 2.30 | 2.42 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tenerife and Girona expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Tenerife / Girona)
- 0.97 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Tenerife / Girona)
- 1.08 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tenerife vs Girona score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tenerife goals. Columns: Girona goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tenerife vs Girona goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tenerife vs Girona
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tenerife | 32% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Girona | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tenerife or draw) | 61% | 1.63 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Girona) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Girona win by 2+ | 19% | 5.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tenerife and Girona recent form
Tenerife
1W 2D 3L
Girona
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tenerife at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Girona away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tenerife at home only, Girona away only.
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