Updated

Segunda División · Matchday 9

Tenerife vs Girona

· Heliodoro Rodríguez López, Santa Cruz de Tenerife· Referee Daniel Palencia Caballero

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Girona to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TenerifeDrawGirona

Tenerife vs Girona: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTenerifeDrawGirona
Model31%29%39%
Market33%30%36%
Published33%30%37%
Edge0%0%+1%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Tenerife vs Girona odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Girona, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.30Now 2.56 +0.26
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Tenerife3.012.80-0.21
Draw3.153.10-0.05
Girona2.302.56+0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Tenerife and Girona expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Tenerife
1.33Girona
Total expected goals
2.49
Attack rating (Tenerife / Girona)
0.97 / 1.06
Defence rating (Tenerife / Girona)
1.07 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tenerife vs Girona score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 9.7% 7.3% 3.2% 1.4% 1 8.4% 14.1% 8.5% 3.7% 1.7% 2 5.6% 7.5% 4.9% 2.2% 1.0% 3 2.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Tenerife goals. Columns: Girona goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tenerife vs Girona goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tenerife vs Girona

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Tenerife33%3.04
Draw30%3.34
Girona37%2.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.20
Under 2.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.08
Double chance1X (Tenerife or draw)63%1.59
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Girona)67%1.49
Handicap -1Girona win by 2+18%5.44
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Tenerife and Girona recent form

Tenerife 1W 2D 3L
Girona 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Tenerife at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

Girona away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Tenerife at home only, Girona away only.

Expected lineups

Tenerife lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Dani Martín
  2. 2 David Rodríguez
  3. 4 José León
  4. 12 A. Landázuri
  5. 19 César Álvarez
  6. 10 Nacho Gil
  7. 15 Fabricio
  8. 20 M. Pittón
  9. 29 Daniel Fernández
  10. 18 Enric Gallego
  11. 17 C. Gomis

Bench: R. Jureškin, Jorge Moreno, M. Pečar, De Miguel, Noel López, Gerard Valentín, Jesús Álvarez, Marc Mateu, G. Ranos, A. Krdžalić, N. Viereck, Gabriel Lozano

Girona lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 P. Gazzaniga
  2. 11 Álex Moreno
  3. 38 Holmes Zamorano
  4. 16 Alejandro Francés
  5. 4 Javier Boñar
  6. 24 I. Gonzalez
  7. 23 Carles Pérez
  8. 8 Fran Beltrán
  9. 22 Y. Asprilla
  10. 19 V. Vanat
  11. 9 Abel Ruiz

Bench: Sergi Puig, A. Mumin, Mateu Morey, David López, D. van de Beek, Portu, Iván Morante, Oleksandr Pishchur, Bryan Gil, V. Krapyvtsov, L. Kourouma, Unai Hernández

Tenerife vs Girona head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Tenerife 4 · draws 3 · Girona 3.

TenerifeDrawsGirona
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-06-19Tenerife1-3GironaSegunda División
2022-06-11Girona0-0TenerifeSegunda División
2022-05-09Girona0-1TenerifeSegunda División
2021-11-08Tenerife2-1GironaSegunda División
2021-05-01Girona1-0TenerifeSegunda División
2020-12-21Tenerife2-0GironaSegunda División
2020-01-19Tenerife1-0GironaSegunda División
2019-11-08Girona1-0TenerifeSegunda División
2017-04-15Tenerife3-3GironaSegunda División
2016-11-05Girona1-1TenerifeSegunda División

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match