Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. preview
In the fixture between Mardin 1969 and Manisa F.K., the 1X2 probabilities show Mardin 1969 at 50%, while Manisa F.K. sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 10% chance. Mardin 1969 has an expected goals figure of 1.77 compared to Manisa F.K.'s 1.20, suggesting Mardin may have the upper hand.
However, both teams to score stands at 59%, indicating that Manisa F.K. could find the net. Recent form reveals Mardin 1969's mixed results with L-W-W-L-L-W, while Manisa F.K. has struggled with L-D-L-L-D-L. This could affect the outcome, making it possible for the match to deviate from the predicted scoreline.
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K.: model vs market
| Source | Mardin 1969 | Draw | Manisa F.K. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mardin 1969, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mardin 1969 | 1.73 | 1.73 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.59 | 3.60 | +0.01 |
| Manisa F.K. | 4.18 | 4.20 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mardin 1969 and Manisa F.K. expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Mardin 1969 / Manisa F.K.)
- 0.92 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Mardin 1969 / Manisa F.K.)
- 0.85 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mardin 1969 goals. Columns: Manisa F.K. goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K.
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mardin 1969 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Manisa F.K. | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mardin 1969 or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Manisa F.K.) | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mardin 1969 win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mardin 1969 and Manisa F.K. recent form
Mardin 1969
3W 0D 3L
Manisa F.K.
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mardin 1969 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Manisa F.K. away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mardin 1969 at home only, Manisa F.K. away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor 2026-10-24
- Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-24
- Sarıyer v Fatih Karagümrük — match page 2026-10-24
- Pendikspor vs Kayserispor 2026-10-25
- Batman Petrolspor vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-10-25
- Antalyaspor v Bodrum FK — match page 2026-10-25
- Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Mardin 1969, previous: Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969: odds and pick
- Manisa F.K., previous: Manisa F.K. – Muğlaspor, 2026-10-19
- Manisa F.K., next: Manisa F.K. – Batman Petrolspor, 2026-10-31