Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor preview
In the upcoming match between Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Bursaspor at 42%, while Keçiörengücü sits at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a close contest, while Over 2.5 goals has a probability of 47%.
Keçiörengücü's expected goals are 1.43, compared to Bursaspor's 1.11. Recent form also suggests a competitive edge, with Bursaspor winning four of their last six matches. However, any unexpected defensive errors or a lack of finishing could alter the outcome, making it essential to consider the potential for a lower-scoring game.
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor: model vs market
| Source | Keçiörengücü | Draw | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Published | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bursaspor, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keçiörengücü | 3.37 | 3.26 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.40 | -0.25 |
| Bursaspor | 1.96 | 2.05 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.40
- Attack rating (Keçiörengücü / Bursaspor)
- 1.14 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Keçiörengücü / Bursaspor)
- 0.69 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Keçiörengücü goals. Columns: Bursaspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keçiörengücü | 31% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Bursaspor | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Keçiörengücü or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Bursaspor) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bursaspor win by 2+ | 13% | 7.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Keçiörengücü and Bursaspor recent form
Keçiörengücü
3W 3D 0L
Bursaspor
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Keçiörengücü at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bursaspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-1
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Keçiörengücü at home only, Bursaspor away only.
Keçiörengücü vs Bursaspor head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Keçiörengücü 3 · draws 0 · Bursaspor 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-02 | Keçiörengücü | 2-1 | Bursaspor | 1. Lig |
| 2021-11-01 | Bursaspor | 2-0 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 2021-05-09 | Bursaspor | 0-3 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
| 2021-01-02 | Keçiörengücü | 0-1 | Bursaspor | 1. Lig |
| 2020-06-20 | Keçiörengücü | 1-0 | Bursaspor | 1. Lig |
| 2019-11-23 | Bursaspor | 1-0 | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor 2026-10-24
- Bandırmaspor v Iğdır FK — match page 2026-10-24
- Muğlaspor v İstanbulspor — match page 2026-10-24
- Sarıyer v Fatih Karagümrük — match page 2026-10-24
- Pendikspor vs Kayserispor 2026-10-25
- Batman Petrolspor vs Esenler Erokspor 2026-10-25
- Antalyaspor v Bodrum FK — match page 2026-10-25
- Mardin 1969 vs Manisa F.K. — team news & stats 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Keçiörengücü, previous: Fatih Karagümrük vs Keçiörengücü prediction
- Keçiörengücü, next: Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü: odds and pick
- Bursaspor, previous: Bursaspor – Pendikspor, 2026-10-19
- Bursaspor, next: Bursaspor – Bandırmaspor, 2026-10-31