Vipers vs Police preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Vipers and Police, the 1X2 probabilities show Vipers at 89%, with a most likely scoreline of 3-0 at 15%. Vipers have an expected goals figure of 3.10, while Police sit at just 0.40. This suggests a strong advantage for Vipers.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. While Over 2.5 goals sits at 68%, the possibility of both teams to score is only 32%. If Police can improve their recent form, which includes two losses in their last three matches, they might challenge Vipers more than expected.
Vipers vs Police: model vs market
| Source | Vipers | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 89% | 9% | 2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 89% | 9% | 2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.10 vs 0.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vipers and Police expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Vipers / Police)
- 1.73 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Vipers / Police)
- 0.51 / 1.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vipers vs Police score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vipers goals. Columns: Police goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vipers vs Police goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 32%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vipers vs Police
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vipers | 89% | 1.12 |
| Draw | 9% | 11.35 | |
| Police | 2% | 47.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32% | 3.17 |
| No | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vipers or draw) | 98% | 1.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 91% | 1.10 | |
| X2 (draw or Police) | 11% | 9.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vipers win by 2+ | 73% | 1.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Vipers and Police recent form
Vipers
3W 3D 0L
Police
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vipers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Police away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vipers at home only, Police away only.
Vipers vs Police head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Vipers 7 · draws 1 · Police 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Police | 0-0 | Vipers | Uganda Premier League |
| 2026-01-27 | Vipers | 4-1 | Police | Uganda Premier League |
| 2025-03-06 | Police | 0-1 | Vipers | Premier League |
| 2024-10-25 | Vipers | 2-1 | Police | Premier League |
| 2022-05-21 | Vipers | 5-0 | Police | Premier League |
| 2021-10-17 | Police | 0-2 | Vipers | Premier League |
| 2021-02-19 | Vipers | 3-2 | Police | Premier League |
| 2019-10-09 | Police | 1-3 | Vipers | Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Maroons v Kataka — match page 2026-10-20
- BUL vs NEC 2026-10-21
- Kitara v Ntugasaze — match page 2026-10-21
- Lugazi vs Express — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- SC Villa v Mbarara City — match page 2026-10-22
- Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- KCCA vs UPDF 2026-10-22
- Blacks Power vs URA — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Vipers, previous: Kataka vs Vipers: odds and pick
- Vipers, next: Mbarara City vs Vipers prediction
- Police, previous: Police v SC Villa analysis
- Police, next: Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz prediction