Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island preview
In the match between Hartford Athletic and Rhode Island, the 1X2 probabilities show Hartford Athletic at 37%, while Rhode Island is at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. However, the recent form of both teams could influence the outcome; Hartford Athletic has 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Rhode Island has 3 wins in their last 6.
The expected goals are close, with Hartford Athletic at 1.20 and Rhode Island at 1.10. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 41%, and both teams to score is at 48%. This suggests a tight match, but if either team finds their scoring touch, it could change the dynamics significantly.
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island: model vs market
| Source | Hartford Athletic | Draw | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hartford Athletic, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | 2.51 | 2.43 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.17 | +0.07 |
| Rhode Island | 2.56 | 2.62 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hartford Athletic and Rhode Island expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (Hartford Athletic / Rhode Island)
- 1.11 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Hartford Athletic / Rhode Island)
- 1.05 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hartford Athletic goals. Columns: Rhode Island goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hartford Athletic | 37% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Rhode Island | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hartford Athletic or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Rhode Island) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hartford Athletic win by 2+ | 16% | 6.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Hartford Athletic and Rhode Island recent form
Hartford Athletic
1W 3D 2L
Rhode Island
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hartford Athletic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-7-2
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rhode Island away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-9
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hartford Athletic at home only, Rhode Island away only.
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Hartford Athletic 1 · draws 1 · Rhode Island 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Rhode Island | 1-0 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
| 2026-04-01 | Rhode Island | 2-0 | Hartford Athletic | US Open Cup |
| 2025-08-23 | Hartford Athletic | 3-0 | Rhode Island | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-19 | Rhode Island | 0-0 | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship |
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Before and after this match
- Hartford Athletic, previous: Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn prediction
- Rhode Island, previous: Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds prediction