San Antonio vs Orange County SC preview
In the fixture between San Antonio and Orange County SC, the 1X2 probabilities show San Antonio at 52% to win, while Orange County SC sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 19% chance. San Antonio has an expected goals figure of 1.26, compared to Orange County SC's 0.58, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the recent form could challenge this prediction. San Antonio has recorded a W-D-L-D-D-L run, while Orange County SC has struggled with L-L-L-W-L-L. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 33%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 28%, suggesting that while San Antonio is favored, the match could still yield surprises.
San Antonio vs Orange County SC: model vs market
| Source | San Antonio | Draw | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 32% | 16% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Published | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Edge | -1% | +2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.58.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
San Antonio vs Orange County SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on San Antonio, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 1.57 | 1.68 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.63 | -0.27 |
| Orange County SC | 4.80 | 4.43 | -0.37 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
San Antonio and Orange County SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.84
- Attack rating (San Antonio / Orange County SC)
- 0.56 / 0.79
- Defence rating (San Antonio / Orange County SC)
- 0.62 / 1.52
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
San Antonio vs Orange County SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: San Antonio goals. Columns: Orange County SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
San Antonio vs Orange County SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for San Antonio vs Orange County SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Antonio | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Orange County SC | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.06 |
| No | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (San Antonio or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Orange County SC) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | San Antonio win by 2+ | 25% | 4.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
San Antonio and Orange County SC recent form
San Antonio
1W 3D 2L
Orange County SC
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
San Antonio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orange County SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-3
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: San Antonio at home only, Orange County SC away only.
San Antonio vs Orange County SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: San Antonio 3 · draws 3 · Orange County SC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Orange County SC | 2-0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-16 | Orange County SC | 1-0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2025-09-21 | San Antonio | 3-1 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2024-07-21 | Orange County SC | 2-0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-14 | San Antonio | 0-0 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2023-10-08 | Orange County SC | 1-0 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2023-09-24 | San Antonio | 4-0 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2022-10-16 | San Antonio | 2-2 | Orange County SC | USL Championship |
| 2022-04-10 | Orange County SC | 0-1 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
| 2021-11-21 | Orange County SC | 1-1 | San Antonio | USL Championship |
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Before and after this match
- San Antonio, previous: San Antonio v New Mexico United analysis
- Orange County SC, previous: Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising prediction