Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion preview
In the fixture between Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Birmingham Legion, the 1X2 probabilities show Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 47%, while Birmingham Legion sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%.
Pittsburgh has an expected goals figure of 1.48, compared to Birmingham's 1.01. The recent form indicates Pittsburgh’s inconsistency with D-W-L-L-W-D, while Birmingham has a slightly better W-L-W-L-D-D. With both teams to score at 50% and Over 2.5 goals at 46%, the outcome could change if either team improves their finishing or defensive stability.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion: model vs market
| Source | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Draw | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Published | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.96.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Pittsburgh Riverhounds, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.73 | 1.79 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Birmingham Legion | 4.20 | 4.10 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Birmingham Legion expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Pittsburgh Riverhounds / Birmingham Legion)
- 0.80 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Pittsburgh Riverhounds / Birmingham Legion)
- 0.73 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Pittsburgh Riverhounds goals. Columns: Birmingham Legion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Birmingham Legion | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Birmingham Legion) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds win by 2+ | 20% | 4.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Birmingham Legion recent form
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2W 2D 2L
Birmingham Legion
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-4
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham Legion away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-7
- Win rate
- 21%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home only, Birmingham Legion away only.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1 · draws 1 · Birmingham Legion 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Birmingham Legion | 1-0 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-24 | Birmingham Legion | 1-1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship |
| 2025-03-29 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2-0 | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship |
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Before and after this match
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds, previous: Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds prediction
- Birmingham Legion, previous: Brooklyn v Birmingham Legion analysis