Phoenix Rising vs Lexington preview
In the USL Championship fixture between Phoenix Rising and Lexington, the 1X2 probabilities show Lexington at 52%, while Phoenix Rising sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score has a 73% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 76%.
Lexington's recent form is strong, with 6 wins in their last 6 matches, compared to Phoenix Rising's mixed results of 3 wins in 6. The expected goals indicate Phoenix Rising at 1.64 and Lexington at 2.32. This suggests that while Lexington is favored, any unexpected performance from Phoenix Rising could change the outcome.
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington: model vs market
| Source | Phoenix Rising | Draw | Lexington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 21% | 53% |
| Market | 40% | 25% | 34% |
| Published | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| Edge | -4% | -1% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.64.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lexington below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lexington, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Rising | 2.31 | 2.25 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.60 | +0.02 |
| Lexington | 2.54 | 2.63 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Phoenix Rising and Lexington expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.97
- Attack rating (Phoenix Rising / Lexington)
- 1.18 / 1.65
- Defence rating (Phoenix Rising / Lexington)
- 1.19 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Phoenix Rising goals. Columns: Lexington goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Phoenix Rising | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Lexington | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Phoenix Rising or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Lexington) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win by 2+ | 33% | 3.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Phoenix Rising and Lexington recent form
Phoenix Rising
3W 0D 3L
Lexington
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Phoenix Rising at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lexington away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-6
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Phoenix Rising at home only, Lexington away only.
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Phoenix Rising 0 · draws 0 · Lexington 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Lexington | 1-0 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2025-08-09 | Lexington | 2-0 | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| 2025-07-05 | Phoenix Rising | 0-1 | Lexington | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island 2026-10-24
- Louisville City v Detroit City — match page 2026-10-24
- Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX 2026-10-24
- San Antonio vs Orange County SC 2026-10-25
- Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa — match page 2026-10-25
- El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Phoenix Rising, previous: Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising prediction
- Lexington, previous: Las Vegas Lights v Lexington analysis