Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights preview
In the matchup between Monterey Bay and Las Vegas Lights, the 1X2 probabilities show Las Vegas Lights at 39% and Monterey Bay at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.56 for Monterey Bay and 1.65 for Las Vegas Lights.
Both teams to score stands at 65%, indicating a strong likelihood of goals from both sides. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as Monterey Bay has lost 4 of their last 5 matches, while Las Vegas Lights have won 2 of their last 5. This inconsistency for Monterey Bay might lead to a different result than predicted.
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights: model vs market
| Source | Monterey Bay | Draw | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 25% | 39% |
| Market | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Published | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Las Vegas Lights, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay | 2.44 | 2.45 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Las Vegas Lights | 2.38 | 2.38 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monterey Bay and Las Vegas Lights expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Monterey Bay / Las Vegas Lights)
- 0.83 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Monterey Bay / Las Vegas Lights)
- 1.30 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monterey Bay goals. Columns: Las Vegas Lights goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterey Bay | 36% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Las Vegas Lights | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monterey Bay or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Las Vegas Lights) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Las Vegas Lights win by 2+ | 21% | 4.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Monterey Bay and Las Vegas Lights recent form
Monterey Bay
1W 1D 4L
Las Vegas Lights
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monterey Bay at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Vegas Lights away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-8
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.93
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monterey Bay at home only, Las Vegas Lights away only.
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Monterey Bay 4 · draws 2 · Las Vegas Lights 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Monterey Bay | 2-3 | Las Vegas Lights | USL League One Cup |
| 2026-03-29 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2025-10-26 | Monterey Bay | 1-1 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2025-06-15 | Las Vegas Lights | 2-0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2024-09-15 | Las Vegas Lights | 0-0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2024-04-14 | Monterey Bay | 3-1 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2023-09-17 | Monterey Bay | 3-2 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
| 2023-06-11 | Las Vegas Lights | 1-2 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2022-09-28 | Las Vegas Lights | 4-0 | Monterey Bay | USL Championship |
| 2022-05-08 | Monterey Bay | 1-0 | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship |
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Before and after this match
- Monterey Bay, previous: Monterey Bay – Colorado Springs, 2026-10-18
- Las Vegas Lights, previous: Las Vegas Lights v Lexington analysis