Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots preview
Sacramento Republic has a 46% chance to win against Oakland Roots, who sit at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% probability. Sacramento's expected goals are 1.26, while Oakland's are lower at 0.78. Recent form shows Sacramento with 3 wins and 3 draws in their last 6 matches, while Oakland has 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the same period.
The forecast suggests a 33% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance for both teams to score. However, if Oakland manages to improve their scoring, they could challenge Sacramento's defense, which might change the expected outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots: model vs market
| Source | Sacramento Republic | Draw | Oakland Roots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 32% | 22% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Published | 57% | 25% | 17% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.78.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sacramento Republic, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 3.95 | -0.01 |
| Oakland Roots | 5.50 | 5.80 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sacramento Republic and Oakland Roots expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.04
- Attack rating (Sacramento Republic / Oakland Roots)
- 1.06 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Sacramento Republic / Oakland Roots)
- 0.72 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sacramento Republic goals. Columns: Oakland Roots goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Oakland Roots | 17% | 5.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 2.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.49 |
| No | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sacramento Republic or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Oakland Roots) | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win by 2+ | 22% | 4.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sacramento Republic and Oakland Roots recent form
Sacramento Republic
3W 3D 0L
Oakland Roots
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sacramento Republic at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Oakland Roots away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sacramento Republic at home only, Oakland Roots away only.
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Sacramento Republic 6 · draws 1 · Oakland Roots 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Oakland Roots | 1-3 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2026-05-17 | Oakland Roots | 0-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL League One Cup |
| 2025-08-17 | Sacramento Republic | 3-3 | Oakland Roots | USL Championship |
| 2025-05-04 | Oakland Roots | 0-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-07-21 | Oakland Roots | 2-5 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2024-06-16 | Sacramento Republic | 2-3 | Oakland Roots | USL Championship |
| 2023-09-03 | Oakland Roots | 0-1 | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| 2023-05-21 | Sacramento Republic | 3-1 | Oakland Roots | USL Championship |
Other Group Stage fixtures
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- Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX 2026-10-24
- San Antonio vs Orange County SC 2026-10-25
- Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa — match page 2026-10-25
- El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Phoenix Rising v Lexington — match page 2026-10-25
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Before and after this match
- Sacramento Republic, previous: El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic: odds and pick
- Oakland Roots, previous: FC Tulsa – Oakland Roots, 2026-10-18