Barnet vs Oldham preview
Barnet faces Oldham with a 69% probability of winning, compared to Oldham's 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Barnet's expected goals of 2.84 against Oldham's 1.30. Barnet's recent form shows 4 wins and 2 draws, while Oldham has struggled with 1 win, 1 draw, and 5 losses.
The prediction suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 69%. However, if Oldham improves their performance or Barnet underperforms, the expected outcomes could shift. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
Barnet vs Oldham: model vs market
| Source | Barnet | Draw | Oldham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 17% | 15% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Edge | +20% | -8% | -11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Barnet below the model: +19.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Barnet vs Oldham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barnet, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 1.91 | 1.91 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Oldham | 3.61 | 3.61 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Barnet and Oldham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.05
- Attack rating (Barnet / Oldham)
- 1.60 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Barnet / Oldham)
- 1.17 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barnet vs Oldham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barnet goals. Columns: Oldham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barnet vs Oldham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barnet vs Oldham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Oldham | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barnet or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Oldham) | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win by 2+ | 48% | 2.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Barnet and Oldham recent form
Barnet
4W 1D 1L
Oldham
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barnet at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oldham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barnet at home only, Oldham away only.
Barnet vs Oldham head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Barnet 3 · draws 2 · Oldham 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Barnet | 3-2 | Oldham | League Two |
| 2025-09-27 | Oldham | 1-1 | Barnet | League Two |
| 2025-03-01 | Oldham | 0-3 | Barnet | National League |
| 2024-11-09 | Barnet | 0-0 | Oldham | National League |
| 2024-01-23 | Oldham | 2-0 | Barnet | National League |
| 2023-11-22 | Barnet | 1-4 | Oldham | National League |
| 2023-02-28 | Barnet | 1-3 | Oldham | National League |
| 2022-11-12 | Oldham | 0-2 | Barnet | National League |
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Before and after this match
- Barnet, previous: Barnet vs Swindon Town prediction
- Barnet, next: Barnet vs Tranmere: odds and pick
- Oldham, previous: Walsall vs Oldham prediction
- Oldham, next: Oldham – Sheffield Wednesday, 2026-11-07