Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka preview
In the J1 League fixture between Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka, the 1X2 probabilities show Gamba Osaka at 37% and Avispa Fukuoka at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 10%. Gamba Osaka's expected goals stand at 1.22, while Avispa Fukuoka's are at 1.13.
Both teams to score has a probability of 49%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 42%. Recent form indicates that Avispa Fukuoka has won 1 of their last 6 matches, while Gamba Osaka has also struggled, winning only 1 of their last 6. This could affect the match outcome if either team finds their scoring touch.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka: model vs market
| Source | Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 28% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.08.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Avispa Fukuoka / Gamba Osaka)
- 0.72 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Avispa Fukuoka / Gamba Osaka)
- 1.06 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Avispa Fukuoka goals. Columns: Gamba Osaka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avispa Fukuoka | 26% | 3.79 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Gamba Osaka | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Avispa Fukuoka or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Gamba Osaka) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gamba Osaka win by 2+ | 23% | 4.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka recent form
Avispa Fukuoka
1W 1D 4L
Gamba Osaka
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Avispa Fukuoka at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Gamba Osaka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Avispa Fukuoka at home only, Gamba Osaka away only.
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Avispa Fukuoka 5 · draws 2 · Gamba Osaka 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Gamba Osaka | 1-2 | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| 2026-03-21 | Avispa Fukuoka | 2-2 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2025-11-30 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1-0 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2025-02-22 | Gamba Osaka | 2-1 | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| 2024-08-24 | Gamba Osaka | 2-2 | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| 2024-05-03 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1-0 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2023-11-11 | Gamba Osaka | 1-2 | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| 2023-06-03 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1-2 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2022-08-31 | Avispa Fukuoka | 0-1 | Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| 2022-03-19 | Gamba Osaka | 2-3 | Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page 2026-10-21
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima 2026-10-21
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page 2026-10-21
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia 2026-10-21
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Avispa Fukuoka, previous: Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka analysis
- Avispa Fukuoka, next: Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka analysis
- Gamba Osaka, previous: Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka analysis
- Gamba Osaka, next: Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga prediction