V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima preview
In the J1 League fixture between V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima, the 1X2 probabilities show Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 74% to win, while V-varen Nagasaki sits at just 9%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, with a 12% chance. Sanfrecce Hiroshima's recent form includes 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while V-varen Nagasaki has only 1 win in their last 6.
The model also suggests a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 51%. However, V-varen Nagasaki's expected goals are only 0.79, which could impact the overall scoring potential. With a confidence grade of C, unexpected outcomes remain a possibility, especially given V-varen Nagasaki's recent struggles.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: model vs market
| Source | V-varen Nagasaki | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7% | 15% | 78% |
| Market | 16% | 20% | 65% |
| Published | 13% | 18% | 68% |
| Edge | -9% | -4% | +13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sanfrecce Hiroshima below the model: +13.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sanfrecce Hiroshima, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| V-varen Nagasaki | 5.95 | 5.95 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.00 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.45 | 1.45 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (V-varen Nagasaki / Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
- 0.84 / 1.74
- Defence rating (V-varen Nagasaki / Sanfrecce Hiroshima)
- 1.13 / 0.55
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: V-varen Nagasaki goals. Columns: Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | V-varen Nagasaki | 13% | 7.43 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.41 | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (V-varen Nagasaki or draw) | 32% | 3.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima) | 87% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima win by 2+ | 57% | 1.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima recent form
V-varen Nagasaki
1W 2D 3L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
V-varen Nagasaki at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: V-varen Nagasaki at home only, Sanfrecce Hiroshima away only.
V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: V-varen Nagasaki 0 · draws 0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2-0 | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League |
| 2026-02-06 | V-varen Nagasaki | 1-3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| 2018-08-11 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2-0 | V-varen Nagasaki | J1 League |
| 2018-04-28 | V-varen Nagasaki | 0-2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page 2026-10-21
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Before and after this match
- V-varen Nagasaki, previous: Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction
- V-varen Nagasaki, next: Urawa – V-varen Nagasaki, 2026-10-25
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima, previous: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Kyoto Sanga, 2026-10-17
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima, next: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse prediction