Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima preview
In the J1 League fixture between Kyoto Sanga and Kashima, the 1X2 probabilities show Kashima at 51%, while Kyoto Sanga sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance according to our model. Both teams to score has a probability of 63%, and there is a 62% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Kyoto Sanga's expected goals are 1.28, compared to Kashima's 1.91. Recent form indicates Kyoto Sanga has two wins in their last six matches, while Kashima has won two of their last six. This could impact performance, as form may not align with expected outcomes. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions.
Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima: model vs market
| Source | Kyoto Sanga | Draw | Kashima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| Market | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Published | 23% | 25% | 53% |
| Edge | -5% | -2% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kashima below the model: +7.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kashima, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto Sanga | 3.96 | 3.96 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 | +0.00 |
| Kashima | 1.85 | 1.85 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kyoto Sanga and Kashima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Kyoto Sanga / Kashima)
- 0.79 / 1.37
- Defence rating (Kyoto Sanga / Kashima)
- 1.13 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kyoto Sanga goals. Columns: Kashima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kyoto Sanga | 23% | 4.44 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Kashima | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.70 |
| No | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kyoto Sanga or draw) | 47% | 2.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Kashima) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kashima win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kyoto Sanga and Kashima recent form
Kyoto Sanga
2W 0D 4L
Kashima
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kyoto Sanga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Kashima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kyoto Sanga at home only, Kashima away only.
Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Kyoto Sanga 1 · draws 4 · Kashima 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Kyoto Sanga | 1-1 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2025-04-06 | Kashima | 3-4 | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
| 2024-11-17 | Kyoto Sanga | 0-0 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2024-04-13 | Kashima | 1-0 | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
| 2023-07-01 | Kashima | 0-0 | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
| 2023-02-18 | Kyoto Sanga | 0-2 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2022-09-10 | Kyoto Sanga | 1-1 | Kashima | J1 League |
| 2022-06-18 | Kashima | 1-0 | Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
| 2013-10-14 | Kashima | 2-1 | Kyoto Sanga | Emperor Cup |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats 2026-10-21
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- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-10-21
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Before and after this match
- Kyoto Sanga, previous: Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Kyoto Sanga, 2026-10-17
- Kyoto Sanga, next: Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga prediction
- Kashima, previous: Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction
- Kashima, next: Kashima – Kashiwa Reysol, 2026-10-24