Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy preview
Yokohama F. Marinos have a 66% chance to win against Tokyo Verdy, who have just a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 17% probability. Yokohama F. Marinos have a stronger expected goals figure of 1.74 compared to Tokyo Verdy's 0.52.
While Over 2.5 goals has a 39% chance and both teams to score sits at 34%, these figures suggest a low-scoring match. Recent form also indicates Yokohama F. Marinos are more consistent, with their last five matches showing D-W-W-D-W-D, while Tokyo Verdy's form is weaker at L-D-L-D-D-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy: model vs market
| Source | Yokohama F. Marinos | Draw | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 22% | 7% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Published | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Edge | +20% | -6% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Yokohama F. Marinos below the model: +20.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Yokohama F. Marinos, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.83 | 1.83 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
| Tokyo Verdy | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Yokohama F. Marinos and Tokyo Verdy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Yokohama F. Marinos / Tokyo Verdy)
- 1.01 / 0.57
- Defence rating (Yokohama F. Marinos / Tokyo Verdy)
- 0.59 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Yokohama F. Marinos goals. Columns: Tokyo Verdy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 31%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Tokyo Verdy | 18% | 5.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31% | 3.24 |
| No | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Yokohama F. Marinos or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Tokyo Verdy) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Yokohama F. Marinos win by 2+ | 45% | 2.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Yokohama F. Marinos and Tokyo Verdy recent form
Yokohama F. Marinos
3W 3D 0L
Tokyo Verdy
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Yokohama F. Marinos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tokyo Verdy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Yokohama F. Marinos at home only, Tokyo Verdy away only.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Yokohama F. Marinos 4 · draws 1 · Tokyo Verdy 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Tokyo Verdy | 0-6 | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| 2026-02-28 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 3-2 | Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| 2025-08-09 | Tokyo Verdy | 1-0 | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| 2025-04-05 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 0-0 | Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| 2024-06-29 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 1-2 | Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| 2024-02-25 | Tokyo Verdy | 1-2 | Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| 2016-09-22 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 4-0 | Tokyo Verdy | Emperor Cup |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page 2026-10-21
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima 2026-10-21
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page 2026-10-21
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia 2026-10-21
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Yokohama F. Marinos, previous: JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos: odds and pick
- Yokohama F. Marinos, next: Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos: odds and pick
- Tokyo Verdy, previous: Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo: odds and pick
- Tokyo Verdy, next: Tokyo Verdy v Avispa Fukuoka analysis