Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock preview
Fagiano Okayama faces Mito Hollyhock with a 56% chance of winning compared to Mito's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. Fagiano Okayama has an expected goals figure of 1.73, while Mito Hollyhock sits at 0.89.
However, the match could produce different outcomes. Both teams to score stands at 50%, indicating a balanced chance for both sides to find the net. Additionally, there's a 49% probability for Over 2.5 goals, suggesting that goals could come from either team if they exceed their expected figures. Recent form shows Fagiano Okayama winning three of their last six, while Mito Hollyhock has struggled with three losses in their last six matches.
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock: model vs market
| Source | Fagiano Okayama | Draw | Mito Hollyhock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (Fagiano Okayama / Mito Hollyhock)
- 0.96 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Fagiano Okayama / Mito Hollyhock)
- 1.02 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fagiano Okayama goals. Columns: Mito Hollyhock goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fagiano Okayama | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Mito Hollyhock | 24% | 4.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fagiano Okayama or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Mito Hollyhock) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fagiano Okayama win by 2+ | 24% | 4.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fagiano Okayama and Mito Hollyhock recent form
Fagiano Okayama
3W 0D 3L
Mito Hollyhock
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fagiano Okayama at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Mito Hollyhock away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fagiano Okayama at home only, Mito Hollyhock away only.
Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fagiano Okayama 4 · draws 5 · Mito Hollyhock 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | Mito Hollyhock | 0-0 | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| 2024-03-20 | Fagiano Okayama | 1-0 | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| 2023-07-01 | Fagiano Okayama | 1-0 | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| 2023-03-05 | Mito Hollyhock | 1-1 | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| 2022-06-25 | Mito Hollyhock | 1-1 | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| 2022-05-04 | Fagiano Okayama | 2-1 | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| 2021-10-24 | Mito Hollyhock | 1-1 | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| 2021-04-17 | Fagiano Okayama | 1-2 | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| 2020-10-04 | Mito Hollyhock | 0-0 | Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| 2020-08-08 | Fagiano Okayama | 3-1 | Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka 2026-10-21
- FC Tokyo v Kashiwa Reysol — match page 2026-10-21
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima 2026-10-21
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page 2026-10-21
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia 2026-10-21
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Fagiano Okayama, previous: Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe prediction
- Fagiano Okayama, next: Kawasaki Frontale v Fagiano Okayama analysis
- Mito Hollyhock, previous: Mito Hollyhock vs Urawa: odds and pick
- Mito Hollyhock, next: FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock: odds and pick