FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol preview
In the J1 League fixture between FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Tokyo at 56% to win, compared to Kashiwa Reysol at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. FC Tokyo has been in strong form, winning their last 5 matches, while Kashiwa Reysol has won 4 of their last 6 but lost the last 2.
The model predicts a high likelihood of goals, with 67% for Over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score. However, Kashiwa Reysol's recent struggles could lead to a lower output than expected, impacting these goal predictions. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol: model vs market
| Source | FC Tokyo | Draw | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 18% | 14% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | +25% | -9% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Tokyo below the model: +25.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Tokyo, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 2.15 | 2.15 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.85
- Attack rating (FC Tokyo / Kashiwa Reysol)
- 1.65 / 1.61
- Defence rating (FC Tokyo / Kashiwa Reysol)
- 0.55 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Tokyo goals. Columns: Kashiwa Reysol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Tokyo | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Tokyo or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Kashiwa Reysol) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Tokyo win by 2+ | 49% | 2.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol recent form
FC Tokyo
6W 0D 0L
Kashiwa Reysol
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Tokyo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kashiwa Reysol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Tokyo at home only, Kashiwa Reysol away only.
FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Tokyo 3 · draws 3 · Kashiwa Reysol 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1-3 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2026-02-28 | FC Tokyo | 0-2 | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| 2025-07-05 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1-0 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2025-04-11 | FC Tokyo | 1-1 | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| 2024-07-30 | FC Tokyo | 0-1 | Kashiwa Reysol | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-07-06 | Kashiwa Reysol | 3-2 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2024-05-11 | FC Tokyo | 3-3 | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| 2023-07-01 | FC Tokyo | 1-0 | Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| 2023-02-26 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1-1 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| 2022-08-27 | Kashiwa Reysol | 3-6 | FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka 2026-10-21
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Vissel Kobe — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima 2026-10-21
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page 2026-10-21
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia 2026-10-21
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- FC Tokyo, previous: Tokyo Verdy vs FC Tokyo: odds and pick
- FC Tokyo, next: FC Tokyo vs Mito Hollyhock: odds and pick
- Kashiwa Reysol, previous: Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus, 2026-10-17
- Kashiwa Reysol, next: Kashima – Kashiwa Reysol, 2026-10-24