Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia preview
Shimizu S-pulse faces Machida Zelvia with a 21% chance of winning for Shimizu and a 54% chance for Machida. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.05 for Shimizu and 1.80 for Machida.
Both teams to score stands at 55%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 54%. Shimizu's recent form shows 4 wins and 1 loss, while Machida has 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches. The head-to-head record shows Shimizu with 3 wins, 1 draw, and Machida with 2 wins. A draw is also a possibility with a 25% chance.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia: model vs market
| Source | Shimizu S-pulse | Draw | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.05.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Shimizu S-pulse / Machida Zelvia)
- 0.96 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Shimizu S-pulse / Machida Zelvia)
- 0.93 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shimizu S-pulse goals. Columns: Machida Zelvia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shimizu S-pulse | 21% | 4.81 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Machida Zelvia | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shimizu S-pulse or draw) | 46% | 2.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Machida Zelvia) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Machida Zelvia win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shimizu S-pulse and Machida Zelvia recent form
Shimizu S-pulse
4W 1D 1L
Machida Zelvia
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shimizu S-pulse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Machida Zelvia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Shimizu S-pulse at home only, Machida Zelvia away only.
Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Shimizu S-pulse 3 · draws 1 · Machida Zelvia 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-05 | Machida Zelvia | 3-0 | Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| 2025-05-11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 2-2 | Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| 2023-08-19 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3-2 | Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
| 2023-05-21 | Machida Zelvia | 2-1 | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
| 2016-10-08 | Shimizu S-pulse | 2-0 | Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
| 2016-06-08 | Machida Zelvia | 1-2 | Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
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Before and after this match
- Shimizu S-pulse, previous: Shimizu S-pulse v Gamba Osaka analysis
- Shimizu S-pulse, next: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse prediction
- Machida Zelvia, previous: Machida Zelvia v Avispa Fukuoka analysis
- Machida Zelvia, next: Vissel Kobe vs Machida Zelvia: odds and pick