Updated

J1 League · Matchday 10

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka

· Machida GION Stadium, Tokyo· Referee Jumpei Iida

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Machida Zelvia to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Machida ZelviaDrawAvispa Fukuoka

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMachida ZelviaDrawAvispa Fukuoka
Model60%24%16%
Market51%27%22%
Published53%26%20%
Edge+8%-3%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.87.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Machida Zelvia below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Machida Zelvia, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.80Now 1.84 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Machida Zelvia1.801.84+0.04
Draw3.543.48-0.06
Avispa Fukuoka4.334.31-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Machida Zelvia
0.87Avispa Fukuoka
Total expected goals
2.71
Attack rating (Machida Zelvia / Avispa Fukuoka)
1.39 / 0.79
Defence rating (Machida Zelvia / Avispa Fukuoka)
0.84 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 4.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1 11.1% 11.7% 4.6% 1.3% 0.4% 2 11.3% 9.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 3 6.9% 6.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 4.8% 4.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Machida Zelvia goals. Columns: Avispa Fukuoka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Machida Zelvia53%1.88
Draw26%3.79
Avispa Fukuoka20%4.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.04
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.00
No50%2.00
Double chance1X (Machida Zelvia or draw)80%1.26
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Avispa Fukuoka)47%2.14
Handicap -1Machida Zelvia win by 2+35%2.83
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Machida Zelvia and Avispa Fukuoka recent form

Machida Zelvia 4W 1D 1L
Avispa Fukuoka 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Machida Zelvia at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.75
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Avispa Fukuoka away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Machida Zelvia at home only, Avispa Fukuoka away only.

Expected lineups

Machida Zelvia lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 K. Tani
  2. 2 T. Ouwejan
  3. 50 D. Okamura
  4. 3 G. Shōji
  5. 33 T. Akimoto
  6. 31 N. Lavi
  7. 16 H. Mae
  8. 6 H. Mochizuki
  9. 7 Y. Soma
  10. 9 Koki Ogawa
  11. 99 T. Yengi

Bench: I. Drešević, K. Sento, T. Morita, M. Duke, H. Shimoda, T. Nishimura, R. Shirasaki, Futa Tokumura, Aki Koch

Avispa Fukuoka lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 24 Y. Obata
  2. 15 Y. Tsujioka
  3. 37 M. Tashiro
  4. 16 T. Oka
  5. 29 Y. Maejima
  6. 11 T. Miki
  7. 34 K. Shiihashi
  8. 2 M. Yuzawa
  9. 13 S. Morooka
  10. 6 M. Shigemi
  11. 9 Werik Popó

Bench: T. Nagaishi, T. Kamijima, K. Mikuni, Y. Kitajima, A. Sani Brown, K. Yamawaki, D. Miya, Y. Hashimoto, Shohei Takemoto, K. Maeda

Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Machida Zelvia 3 · draws 5 · Avispa Fukuoka 2.

Machida ZelviaDrawsAvispa Fukuoka
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-10-18Machida Zelvia0-0Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
2025-03-29Avispa Fukuoka2-2Machida ZelviaJ1 League
2024-09-14Avispa Fukuoka0-3Machida ZelviaJ1 League
2024-06-22Machida Zelvia0-0Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
2020-10-21Machida Zelvia0-0Avispa FukuokaJ2 League
2020-09-13Avispa Fukuoka2-1Machida ZelviaJ2 League
2019-07-14Machida Zelvia0-2Avispa FukuokaJ2 League
2019-04-13Avispa Fukuoka0-2Machida ZelviaJ2 League
2018-11-04Machida Zelvia2-1Avispa FukuokaJ2 League
2018-06-30Avispa Fukuoka2-2Machida ZelviaJ2 League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match