Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka preview
In the J1 League match between Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka, the 1X2 probabilities show Nagoya Grampus at 37% and Cerezo Osaka at 36%. The expected goals indicate a close contest, with Nagoya Grampus at 1.49 and Cerezo Osaka at 1.63. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Nagoya Grampus, occurring at an 8% probability.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Nagoya Grampus winning 2 of their last 6 matches and Cerezo Osaka drawing 3 of their last 6. The model suggests a 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability for both teams to score. Factors such as defensive lapses or a lack of finishing could impact these outcomes.
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka: model vs market
| Source | Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 37% | 26% | 36% |
| Edge | -4% | -1% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nagoya Grampus, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 2.45 | 2.45 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 2.65 | 2.65 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.12
- Attack rating (Nagoya Grampus / Cerezo Osaka)
- 0.96 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Nagoya Grampus / Cerezo Osaka)
- 1.28 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nagoya Grampus goals. Columns: Cerezo Osaka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nagoya Grampus | 37% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Cerezo Osaka | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nagoya Grampus or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Cerezo Osaka) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nagoya Grampus win by 2+ | 17% | 6.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka recent form
Nagoya Grampus
2W 0D 4L
Cerezo Osaka
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nagoya Grampus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerezo Osaka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Nagoya Grampus at home only, Cerezo Osaka away only.
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nagoya Grampus 5 · draws 1 · Cerezo Osaka 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Cerezo Osaka | 6-1 | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| 2026-04-04 | Nagoya Grampus | 3-0 | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| 2025-10-04 | Nagoya Grampus | 2-1 | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| 2025-03-08 | Cerezo Osaka | 1-1 | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| 2024-06-30 | Cerezo Osaka | 2-1 | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| 2024-04-21 | Nagoya Grampus | 2-1 | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| 2023-08-26 | Cerezo Osaka | 3-1 | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| 2023-06-03 | Nagoya Grampus | 3-1 | Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| 2022-11-05 | Cerezo Osaka | 0-1 | Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| 2022-07-13 | Nagoya Grampus | 1-2 | Cerezo Osaka | Emperor Cup |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Nagoya Grampus, previous: Kashiwa Reysol – Nagoya Grampus, 2026-10-17
- Nagoya Grampus, next: Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos: odds and pick
- Cerezo Osaka, previous: Cerezo Osaka v Kawasaki Frontale analysis
- Cerezo Osaka, next: Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba analysis