Updated

J1 League · Matchday 10

Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe

· JFE Harenokuni Stadium, Okayama· Referee Hayato Shimizu

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Vissel Kobe to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Fagiano OkayamaDrawVissel Kobe

Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFagiano OkayamaDrawVissel Kobe
Model34%29%37%
Market34%29%37%
Published34%29%37%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Vissel Kobe, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.40Now 2.54 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fagiano Okayama2.882.78-0.10
Draw3.253.20-0.05
Vissel Kobe2.402.54+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fagiano Okayama and Vissel Kobe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.24Fagiano Okayama
1.32Vissel Kobe
Total expected goals
2.56
Attack rating (Fagiano Okayama / Vissel Kobe)
1.07 / 1.15
Defence rating (Fagiano Okayama / Vissel Kobe)
0.87 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.0% 9.0% 6.7% 3.0% 1.3% 1 8.3% 13.9% 8.3% 3.7% 1.6% 2 5.9% 7.8% 5.2% 2.3% 1.0% 3 2.5% 3.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Fagiano Okayama goals. Columns: Vissel Kobe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fagiano Okayama34%2.97
Draw29%3.42
Vissel Kobe37%2.70
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.12
Under 2.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.88
No47%2.14
Double chance1X (Fagiano Okayama or draw)63%1.59
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Vissel Kobe)66%1.51
Handicap -1Vissel Kobe win by 2+17%5.75
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fagiano Okayama and Vissel Kobe recent form

Fagiano Okayama 4W 0D 2L
Vissel Kobe 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fagiano Okayama at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vissel Kobe away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-2
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fagiano Okayama at home only, Vissel Kobe away only.

Expected lineups

Fagiano Okayama lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 L. Moser
  2. 43 Y. Suzuki
  3. 48 Y. Tatsuta
  4. 44 S. Mori
  5. 88 T. Yamane
  6. 80 Oberdan
  7. 41 E. Miyamoto
  8. 51 K. Shirai
  9. 8 A. Esaka
  10. 10 Na Sang-Ho
  11. 99 Lucão

Bench: R. Takeuchi, Léo Gaúcho, R. Sato, K. Kawano, M. Matsumoto, Y. Kamiya, T. Hamada, Y. Fujii, N. Browne

Vissel Kobe lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 71 S. Gonda
  2. 15 Diego
  3. 3 Matheus Thuler
  4. 4 T. Yamakawa
  5. 24 G. Sakai
  6. 94 Erik
  7. 25 Y. Kuwasaki
  8. 7 Y. Ideguchi
  9. 41 K. Nagato
  10. 10 Y. Osako
  11. 11 Y. Muto

Bench: D. Maekawa, N. Iino, Y. Goke, Caetano, K. Watanabe, Yuan Iwamoto, Jean Patrick, R. Komatsu, M. Hidaka

Fagiano Okayama vs Vissel Kobe head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Fagiano Okayama 2 · draws 1 · Vissel Kobe 3.

Fagiano OkayamaDrawsVissel Kobe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Vissel Kobe0-3Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
2026-04-05Fagiano Okayama1-4Vissel KobeJ1 League
2025-07-20Fagiano Okayama1-2Vissel KobeJ1 League
2025-05-03Vissel Kobe2-0Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
2013-07-03Fagiano Okayama1-0Vissel KobeJ2 League
2013-04-28Vissel Kobe3-3Fagiano OkayamaJ2 League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match