Urawa vs JEF United Chiba preview
In the J1 League fixture on 2026-10-21, Urawa has a 55% chance to win against JEF United Chiba, who sit at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Urawa's expected goals of 2.07 compared to JEF United Chiba's 1.25.
Both teams to score stands at 63%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 65%. However, Urawa's recent form shows inconsistency with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, which could impact their performance. JEF United Chiba has struggled, with only one win in their last six games, making their chances of an upset possible.
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba: model vs market
| Source | Urawa | Draw | JEF United Chiba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Urawa, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| JEF United Chiba | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Urawa and JEF United Chiba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Urawa / JEF United Chiba)
- 1.15 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Urawa / JEF United Chiba)
- 1.16 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Urawa goals. Columns: JEF United Chiba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Urawa vs JEF United Chiba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Urawa | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| JEF United Chiba | 21% | 4.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Urawa or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or JEF United Chiba) | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Urawa win by 2+ | 31% | 3.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Urawa and JEF United Chiba recent form
Urawa
4W 0D 2L
JEF United Chiba
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Urawa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
JEF United Chiba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Urawa at home only, JEF United Chiba away only.
Urawa vs JEF United Chiba head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Urawa 2 · draws 0 · JEF United Chiba 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Urawa | 2-0 | JEF United Chiba | J1 League |
| 2026-02-07 | JEF United Chiba | 0-2 | Urawa | J1 League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima 2026-10-21
- Nagoya Grampus v Cerezo Osaka — match page 2026-10-21
- Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia 2026-10-21
- V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — team news & stats 2026-10-21
Before and after this match
- Urawa, previous: Mito Hollyhock vs Urawa: odds and pick
- Urawa, next: Urawa – V-varen Nagasaki, 2026-10-25
- JEF United Chiba, previous: JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos: odds and pick
- JEF United Chiba, next: Cerezo Osaka v JEF United Chiba analysis