3K vs Mara Sugar preview
In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between 3K and Mara Sugar, the 1X2 probabilities show a slight edge for a draw at 37%, compared to 32% for 3K and 31% for Mara Sugar. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 20%, indicating a low-scoring match.
Both teams have low expected goals, with 3K at 0.83 and Mara Sugar at 0.82. The chances of Over 2.5 goals are only 23%, and both teams to score stands at 33%. This suggests that while a draw is favored, a lack of scoring could make these predictions less reliable.
3K vs Mara Sugar: model vs market
| Source | 3K | Draw | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 37% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 37% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
3K and Mara Sugar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.65
- Attack rating (3K / Mara Sugar)
- 1.00 / 0.84
- Defence rating (3K / Mara Sugar)
- 1.00 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
3K vs Mara Sugar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: 3K goals. Columns: Mara Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
3K vs Mara Sugar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for 3K vs Mara Sugar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 3K | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Mara Sugar | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.04 |
| No | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (3K or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| X2 (draw or Mara Sugar) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | 3K win by 2+ | 11% | 9.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
3K and Mara Sugar recent form
Mara Sugar
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Mathare United v APS Bomet — match page 2026-10-10
- Posta Rangers FC vs Shabana 2026-10-10
- Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Migori Youth vs Police 2026-10-11
- Nairobi United vs KCB — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- AFC Leopards vs Bandari 2026-10-11
- GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- 3K, previous: 3K – AFC Leopards, 2026-10-09
- 3K, next: 3K v GOR Mahia analysis
- Mara Sugar, previous: Mara Sugar v Migori Youth analysis
- Mara Sugar, next: Nairobi United – Mara Sugar, 2026-10-16