AFC Leopards vs Bandari Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

AFC Leopards vs Bandari preview

AFC Leopards face Bandari with a 44% chance of winning compared to Bandari's 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 14% of the time in our model. AFC Leopards have an expected goals figure of 1.25, while Bandari is at 0.86.

However, there’s a 42% chance that both teams will score, and the probability for Over 2.5 goals stands at 35%. Recent form shows AFC Leopards with mixed results, including two losses, while Bandari has also struggled, recording two draws and three losses in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this fixture is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

AFC Leopards vs Bandari: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AFC Leopards	Draw	Bandari
Model	44%	32%	24%
Market	—	—	—
Published	44%	32%	24%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.86.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

AFC Leopards and Bandari expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25AFC Leopards

0.86Bandari

Total expected goals: 2.11
Attack rating (AFC Leopards / Bandari): 1.25 / 0.76
Defence rating (AFC Leopards / Bandari): 1.14 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AFC Leopards vs Bandari score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.5% 9.2% 4.5% 1.3% 0.3% 1 13.9% 14.3% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 2 9.5% 8.1% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 3 3.9% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: AFC Leopards goals. Columns: Bandari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AFC Leopards vs Bandari goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AFC Leopards vs Bandari

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AFC Leopards	44%	2.27
	Draw	32%	3.15
	Bandari	24%	4.12
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.84
	Under 2.5	65%	1.54
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.36
	No	58%	1.74
Double chance	1X (AFC Leopards or draw)	76%	1.32
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or Bandari)	56%	1.79
Handicap -1	AFC Leopards win by 2+	20%	4.90
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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