Nairobi United vs KCB preview
In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Nairobi United and KCB, the 1X2 probabilities show Nairobi United at 47%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 11%. Nairobi United has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.39 compared to KCB's 1.04, suggesting they may have the upper hand in creating chances.
However, KCB's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge Nairobi United. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 44%, while both teams to score is at 50%. If KCB finds their scoring touch, the match could deviate from the predicted outcome.
Nairobi United vs KCB: model vs market
| Source | Nairobi United | Draw | KCB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Published | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nairobi United vs KCB odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nairobi United, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United | 1.88 | 1.92 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.02 | 2.90 | -0.12 |
| KCB | 4.16 | 3.92 | -0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nairobi United and KCB expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Nairobi United / KCB)
- 1.19 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Nairobi United / KCB)
- 0.93 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nairobi United vs KCB score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nairobi United goals. Columns: KCB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nairobi United vs KCB goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nairobi United vs KCB
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.28 | |
| KCB | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nairobi United or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or KCB) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win by 2+ | 21% | 4.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nairobi United and KCB recent form
Nairobi United
3W 2D 1L
KCB
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Nairobi United vs KCB head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Nairobi United 1 · draws 2 · KCB 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Nairobi United | 0-1 | KCB | Shield Cup |
| 2026-03-04 | Nairobi United | 1-1 | KCB | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2026-01-15 | KCB | 0-2 | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-04-12 | Nairobi United | 0-0 | KCB | Shield Cup |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
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- Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Migori Youth vs Police 2026-10-11
- 3K v Mara Sugar — match page 2026-10-11
- AFC Leopards vs Bandari 2026-10-11
- GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Nairobi United, previous: GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United prediction
- Nairobi United, next: Nairobi United – Mara Sugar, 2026-10-16
- KCB, previous: KCB – APS Bomet, 2026-10-09
- KCB, next: Homeboyz v KCB analysis