Migori Youth vs Police preview
Migori Youth face Police with 24% chances to win compared to Police's 40%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 17% of the time according to our model. Police's recent form shows 4 draws followed by a win, indicating a struggle to secure victories.
Migori Youth's expected goals are 0.70, while Police's are at 1.00. This suggests that scoring for Migori Youth may be a challenge. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 24% and both teams to score at 33%, indicating that a low-scoring match is more likely. Factors like a sudden change in form or injuries could affect these outcomes.
Migori Youth vs Police: model vs market
| Source | Migori Youth | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 36% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 36% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.00 vs 0.70.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Migori Youth and Police expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.70
- Attack rating (Migori Youth / Police)
- 1.00 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Migori Youth / Police)
- 1.00 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Migori Youth vs Police score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Migori Youth goals. Columns: Police goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Migori Youth vs Police goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Migori Youth vs Police
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Migori Youth | 24% | 4.24 |
| Draw | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Police | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.02 |
| No | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Migori Youth or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| X2 (draw or Police) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win by 2+ | 16% | 6.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Migori Youth and Police recent form
Police
1W 5D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Migori Youth, previous: Mara Sugar v Migori Youth analysis
- Migori Youth, next: Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth prediction
- Police, previous: Homeboyz v Police analysis
- Police, next: Police v Posta Rangers FC analysis