GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL preview
In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between GOR Mahia and Murang'a SEAL, the 1X2 probabilities show Murang'a SEAL at 40% to win, compared to GOR Mahia's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with expected goals of 1.17 for GOR Mahia and 1.35 for Murang'a SEAL.
Both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, GOR Mahia's recent form, with 3 losses in their last 5 matches, could impact their performance. If they fail to improve, it may lead to a different outcome than the predicted scoreline.
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL: model vs market
| Source | GOR Mahia | Draw | Murang'a SEAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
GOR Mahia and Murang'a SEAL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (GOR Mahia / Murang'a SEAL)
- 0.89 / 1.13
- Defence rating (GOR Mahia / Murang'a SEAL)
- 1.22 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: GOR Mahia goals. Columns: Murang'a SEAL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GOR Mahia | 31% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Murang'a SEAL | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (GOR Mahia or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Murang'a SEAL) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Murang'a SEAL win by 2+ | 19% | 5.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
GOR Mahia and Murang'a SEAL recent form
GOR Mahia
1W 2D 3L
Murang'a SEAL
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: GOR Mahia 3 · draws 4 · Murang'a SEAL 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Murang'a SEAL | 1-3 | GOR Mahia | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2026-01-14 | GOR Mahia | 3-2 | Murang'a SEAL | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-05-25 | GOR Mahia | 2-2 | Murang'a SEAL | Shield Cup |
| 2025-05-18 | Murang'a SEAL | 0-0 | GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-11-02 | GOR Mahia | 2-2 | Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-05-04 | Murang'a SEAL | 1-3 | GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-11-11 | GOR Mahia | 0-0 | Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Mathare United v APS Bomet — match page 2026-10-10
- Posta Rangers FC vs Shabana 2026-10-10
- Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Migori Youth vs Police 2026-10-11
- 3K v Mara Sugar — match page 2026-10-11
- Nairobi United vs KCB — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- AFC Leopards vs Bandari 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- GOR Mahia, previous: GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United prediction
- GOR Mahia, next: 3K v GOR Mahia analysis
- Murang'a SEAL, previous: Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars prediction
- Murang'a SEAL, next: Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United prediction