Posta Rangers FC vs Shabana preview
In the match between Posta Rangers FC and Shabana, the 1X2 probabilities show Posta Rangers FC at 32%, a draw at 32%, and Shabana at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. This suggests a narrow victory for Shabana, but the outcome could change if Posta Rangers FC improves their expected goals of 1.04, as they have shown some recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Both teams to score stands at 38%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 29%. Shabana's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 5 matches, which could boost their chances. However, if either team struggles to convert their chances, the predicted scoreline may not hold.
Posta Rangers FC vs Shabana: model vs market
| Source | Posta Rangers FC | Draw | Shabana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 35% | 27% |
| Market | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Published | 32% | 32% | 36% |
| Edge | +9% | +3% | -12% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Posta Rangers FC vs Shabana odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Shabana, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-08.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Posta Rangers FC | 3.00 | 3.04 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 2.88 | 2.88 | +0.00 |
| Shabana | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Posta Rangers FC and Shabana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.87
- Attack rating (Posta Rangers FC / Shabana)
- 1.00 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Posta Rangers FC / Shabana)
- 1.07 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Posta Rangers FC vs Shabana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Posta Rangers FC goals. Columns: Shabana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Posta Rangers FC vs Shabana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Posta Rangers FC vs Shabana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Posta Rangers FC | 32% | 3.15 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Shabana | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.64 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Posta Rangers FC or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Shabana) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Shabana win by 2+ | 9% | 10.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Posta Rangers FC and Shabana recent form
Posta Rangers FC
2W 3D 1L
Shabana
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Posta Rangers FC vs Shabana head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Posta Rangers FC 3 · draws 1 · Shabana 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Posta Rangers FC | 0-2 | Shabana | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-10-15 | Shabana | 1-2 | Posta Rangers FC | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-02-09 | Posta Rangers FC | 2-1 | Shabana | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-12-04 | Shabana | 1-1 | Posta Rangers FC | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-04-06 | Shabana | 3-0 | Posta Rangers FC | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-11-25 | Posta Rangers FC | 3-1 | Shabana | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
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- Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Migori Youth vs Police 2026-10-11
- 3K v Mara Sugar — match page 2026-10-11
- Nairobi United vs KCB — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- AFC Leopards vs Bandari 2026-10-11
- GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Posta Rangers FC, previous: Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC: odds and pick
- Posta Rangers FC, next: Police v Posta Rangers FC analysis
- Shabana, previous: Mombasa Elite vs Shabana: odds and pick
- Shabana, next: Tusker – Shabana, 2026-10-16