Mathare United vs APS Bomet Prediction & Betting Tips 10/10/2026

Mathare United vs APS Bomet preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Mathare United and APS Bomet, the 1X2 probabilities show APS Bomet at 51% to win, compared to Mathare United's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 17% chance. Mathare United's expected goals stand at 0.68, while APS Bomet's is 1.31, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the visitors.

However, there are factors that could challenge this prediction. Mathare United has shown some resilience with a recent form of W-L-W-L-D-L, while APS Bomet is on a six-match unbeaten run with five wins. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals are at 32%, and both teams to score is at 37%, suggesting a low-scoring match is likely but not impossible.

Mathare United vs APS Bomet: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mathare United	Draw	APS Bomet
Model	18%	31%	51%
Market	33%	31%	35%
Published	30%	31%	39%
Edge	-15%	0%	+16%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.68.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices APS Bomet below the model: +15.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 3.00, recorded 2026-10-09 — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.

Mathare United vs APS Bomet odds movement

Median bookmaker price on APS Bomet, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-08.

Opened 2.72Now 2.56 -0.17

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Mathare United	2.56	2.69	+0.13
Draw	2.89	2.88	-0.01
APS Bomet	2.72	2.56	-0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mathare United and APS Bomet expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.68Mathare United

1.31APS Bomet

Total expected goals: 1.99
Attack rating (Mathare United / APS Bomet): 1.12 / 1.20
Defence rating (Mathare United / APS Bomet): 1.11 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mathare United vs APS Bomet score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.9% 16.7% 11.8% 5.2% 2.3% 1 8.0% 13.4% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 2 3.1% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 3 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mathare United goals. Columns: APS Bomet goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mathare United vs APS Bomet goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 37%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mathare United vs APS Bomet

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mathare United	30%	3.38
	Draw	31%	3.19
	APS Bomet	39%	2.56
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.12
	Under 2.5	68%	1.47
Both teams to score	Yes	37%	2.69
	No	63%	1.59
Double chance	1X (Mathare United or draw)	61%	1.64
	12 (either side)	69%	1.46
	X2 (draw or APS Bomet)	70%	1.42
Handicap -1	APS Bomet win by 2+	25%	4.03
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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