Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker preview

In the upcoming match between Ulinzi Stars and Tusker, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a 26% chance for Ulinzi Stars to win, a 32% chance for a draw, and a 42% chance for Tusker to take the victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%.

Ulinzi Stars have shown strong recent form, winning 4 of their last 6 matches, while Tusker has only managed 2 wins in the same period. Ulinzi's expected goals stand at 1.06 compared to Tusker's 0.78, which suggests a tighter contest. However, the potential for Over 2.5 goals is only 28%, and both teams to score has a 37% chance, meaning a low-scoring match is possible.

Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ulinzi Stars	Draw	Tusker
Model	40%	35%	25%
Market	21%	31%	48%
Published	26%	32%	42%
Edge	+19%	+3%	-23%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded 2026-10-09 — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.

Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Tusker, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 1.87Now 1.88 +0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Ulinzi Stars	4.33	4.33	+0.00
Draw	2.90	2.90	+0.00
Tusker	1.87	1.88	+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ulinzi Stars and Tusker expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06Ulinzi Stars

0.78Tusker

Total expected goals: 1.85
Attack rating (Ulinzi Stars / Tusker): 1.19 / 0.86
Defence rating (Ulinzi Stars / Tusker): 0.92 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.1% 11.0% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1 15.5% 14.5% 5.1% 1.3% 0.3% 2 8.9% 7.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 3 3.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Ulinzi Stars goals. Columns: Tusker goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 56%

Over 2.5 28%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 37%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ulinzi Stars	26%	3.89
	Draw	32%	3.13
	Tusker	42%	2.36
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	28%	3.55
	Under 2.5	72%	1.39
Both teams to score	Yes	37%	2.72
	No	63%	1.58
Double chance	1X (Ulinzi Stars or draw)	58%	1.73
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or Tusker)	74%	1.35
Handicap -1	Tusker win by 2+	8%	12.18
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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