Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano preview
In the fixture between Comerciantes Unidos and Cienciano, the 1X2 probabilities show Cienciano at 41%, while Comerciantes Unidos sits at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a probability of 8%. Cienciano's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Comerciantes Unidos has struggled, recording 5 games without a win.
The model suggests a 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability for both teams to score. Comerciantes Unidos has expected goals of 1.53, closely trailing Cienciano's 1.55. However, if Comerciantes Unidos can improve their performance, they might challenge Cienciano more effectively than anticipated.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano: model vs market
| Source | Comerciantes Unidos | Draw | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 42% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cienciano, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 2.74 | 3.10 | +0.36 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.45 | +0.09 |
| Cienciano | 2.38 | 2.15 | -0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Comerciantes Unidos and Cienciano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Comerciantes Unidos / Cienciano)
- 1.04 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Comerciantes Unidos / Cienciano)
- 1.30 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Comerciantes Unidos goals. Columns: Cienciano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Comerciantes Unidos | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Cienciano | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Comerciantes Unidos or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Cienciano) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cienciano win by 2+ | 19% | 5.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Comerciantes Unidos and Cienciano recent form
Comerciantes Unidos
0W 2D 4L
Cienciano
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Comerciantes Unidos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-3
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cienciano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-7
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.79
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Comerciantes Unidos at home only, Cienciano away only.
Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Comerciantes Unidos 0 · draws 1 · Cienciano 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Cienciano | 1-0 | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-08-08 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-1 | Cienciano | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-03-10 | Cienciano | 3-2 | Comerciantes Unidos | Peru Primera División |
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Before and after this match
- Comerciantes Unidos, previous: Sporting Cristal v Comerciantes Unidos analysis
- Comerciantes Unidos, next: FBC Melgar v Comerciantes Unidos analysis
- Cienciano, previous: Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca: odds and pick
- Cienciano, next: Cienciano vs Atletico Grau prediction