Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College preview
In the fixture between Universitario and Juan Pablo II College, the 1X2 probabilities show Universitario at 63%, while Juan Pablo II College sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which our model predicts at 9%. With expected goals of 1.97 for Universitario and 1.56 for Juan Pablo II College, there is a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 69%.
However, the recent form indicates that both teams are performing well, with Universitario recording 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Juan Pablo II College has 4 wins and 1 draw. This could lead to a tighter contest than the numbers suggest, potentially affecting the outcome.
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College: model vs market
| Source | Universitario | Draw | Juan Pablo II College |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Published | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.56.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.39, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universitario, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universitario | 1.36 | 1.36 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.75 | +0.05 |
| Juan Pablo II College | 7.30 | 7.37 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universitario and Juan Pablo II College expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Universitario / Juan Pablo II College)
- 1.40 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Universitario / Juan Pablo II College)
- 1.12 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universitario goals. Columns: Juan Pablo II College goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitario | 63% | 1.60 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.88 | |
| Juan Pablo II College | 17% | 5.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universitario or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Juan Pablo II College) | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitario win by 2+ | 27% | 3.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Universitario and Juan Pablo II College recent form
Universitario
3W 2D 1L
Juan Pablo II College
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universitario at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-2
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juan Pablo II College away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Universitario at home only, Juan Pablo II College away only.
Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Universitario 2 · draws 0 · Juan Pablo II College 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Juan Pablo II College | 1-4 | Universitario | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-10-05 | Universitario | 3-0 | Juan Pablo II College | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-05-18 | Juan Pablo II College | 2-0 | Universitario | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Atletico Grau v ADT — match page 2026-10-23
- Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Cusco vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano 2026-10-25
- UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-10-25
- Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-25
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Universitario, previous: Alianza Atletico v Universitario analysis
- Universitario, next: Universitario vs Sport Boys prediction
- Juan Pablo II College, previous: Juan Pablo II College – Sport Boys, 2026-10-17
- Juan Pablo II College, next: Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo: odds and pick