Updated

Peru Primera División · Clausura - 13

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima

· Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua

Alin prediction Alianza Lima to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
UCV MoqueguaDrawAlianza Lima
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.70.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Alianza Lima is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
UCV Moquegua6.00 Draw4.00 Alianza Lima1.60

Price as of

Expected return at 1.60: -7.6% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima preview

In the fixture between UCV Moquegua and Alianza Lima, the 1X2 probabilities show Alianza Lima at 57% to win, while UCV Moquegua sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 16% chance. Alianza Lima's expected goals are 1.41, compared to UCV Moquegua's 0.70, indicating a stronger attacking performance.

However, UCV Moquegua's recent form shows 6 matches with 1 win, which could challenge expectations. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 35%, and both teams to score is at 39%. If UCV Moquegua improves their scoring, the match could deviate from the predicted outcome.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUCV MoqueguaDrawAlianza Lima
Model17%30%53%
Market16%25%59%
Published16%26%58%
Edge0%+1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.70.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Alianza Lima, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.

Opened 1.50Now 1.56 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
UCV Moquegua6.395.80-0.59
Draw3.823.75-0.07
Alianza Lima1.501.56+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

UCV Moquegua and Alianza Lima expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.70UCV Moquegua
1.41Alianza Lima
Total expected goals
2.11
Attack rating (UCV Moquegua / Alianza Lima)
0.57 / 1.16
Defence rating (UCV Moquegua / Alianza Lima)
1.14 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.3% 15.9% 12.1% 5.7% 2.7% 1 7.3% 13.1% 8.4% 4.0% 1.9% 2 3.0% 4.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 3 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: UCV Moquegua goals. Columns: Alianza Lima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 63%
Over 2.5 35%
Over 3.5 16%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2UCV Moquegua16%6.14
Draw26%3.85
Alianza Lima58%1.73
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535%2.84
Under 2.565%1.54
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.55
No61%1.64
Double chance1X (UCV Moquegua or draw)42%2.37
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Alianza Lima)84%1.19
Handicap -1Alianza Lima win by 2+27%3.70
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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UCV Moquegua and Alianza Lima recent form

UCV Moquegua 1W 0D 5L
Alianza Lima 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

UCV Moquegua at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-5-5
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).

Alianza Lima away

Record (W-D-L)
6-7-1
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.07
Goals against / match
0.71
Clean sheets
5 of 14
  • They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: UCV Moquegua at home only, Alianza Lima away only.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: UCV Moquegua 0 · draws 0 · Alianza Lima 1.

UCV MoqueguaDrawsAlianza Lima
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-03Alianza Lima2-1UCV MoqueguaPeru Primera División

Other Clausura - 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Alianza Lima to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on Alianza Lima
Our pick: Alianza Lima to win 18+ Bet Now