Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico preview
In the fixture between Sport Huancayo and Alianza Atletico, Sport Huancayo has a 54% probability to win, while Alianza Atletico stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model also shows a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 66%.
However, recent form indicates that both teams are performing well, with Sport Huancayo winning their last 6 matches and Alianza Atletico winning 5 of their last 6. This strong form could lead to a different outcome than predicted, particularly in a competitive matchup where both teams have shown they can score.
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico: model vs market
| Source | Sport Huancayo | Draw | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sport Huancayo, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Huancayo | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.24 | 4.20 | -0.04 |
| Alianza Atletico | 5.55 | 5.55 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sport Huancayo and Alianza Atletico expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.79
- Attack rating (Sport Huancayo / Alianza Atletico)
- 1.15 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Sport Huancayo / Alianza Atletico)
- 0.95 / 1.32
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sport Huancayo goals. Columns: Alianza Atletico goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Huancayo | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Alianza Atletico | 17% | 5.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sport Huancayo or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza Atletico) | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Huancayo win by 2+ | 41% | 2.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sport Huancayo and Alianza Atletico recent form
Sport Huancayo
6W 0D 0L
Alianza Atletico
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sport Huancayo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Atletico away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-8
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sport Huancayo at home only, Alianza Atletico away only.
Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sport Huancayo 4 · draws 2 · Alianza Atletico 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Alianza Atletico | 4-1 | Sport Huancayo | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-07-18 | Alianza Atletico | 0-0 | Sport Huancayo | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-02-07 | Sport Huancayo | 2-1 | Alianza Atletico | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-08-05 | Alianza Atletico | 1-1 | Sport Huancayo | Primera División |
| 2024-02-23 | Sport Huancayo | 4-0 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| 2023-07-31 | Sport Huancayo | 2-0 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| 2023-02-25 | Alianza Atletico | 4-2 | Sport Huancayo | Primera División |
| 2022-10-15 | Alianza Atletico | 1-0 | Sport Huancayo | Primera División |
| 2022-05-30 | Sport Huancayo | 4-1 | Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| 2021-07-24 | Alianza Atletico | 1-0 | Sport Huancayo | Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Atletico Grau v ADT — match page 2026-10-23
- Cusco vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College 2026-10-25
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano 2026-10-25
- UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-10-25
- Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-25
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sport Huancayo, previous: Sport Huancayo – Cusco, 2026-10-16
- Sport Huancayo, next: Juan Pablo II College vs Sport Huancayo: odds and pick
- Alianza Atletico, previous: Alianza Atletico v Universitario analysis
- Alianza Atletico, next: Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso: odds and pick