Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca preview
In the match between Sport Boys and FC Cajamarca, Sport Boys has a 62% probability of winning, while FC Cajamarca sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Sport Boys has an expected goals figure of 1.81, compared to FC Cajamarca's 0.91.
However, the recent form shows Sport Boys with two losses and only one win in their last five matches, while FC Cajamarca has also struggled, with two wins in the same period. Both teams have a 51% chance of producing Over 2.5 goals and also a 51% chance for both teams to score. This uncertainty in form could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca: model vs market
| Source | Sport Boys | Draw | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Published | 62% | 23% | 16% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.91.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sport Boys, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Boys | 1.46 | 1.46 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.00 |
| FC Cajamarca | 6.24 | 6.20 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sport Boys and FC Cajamarca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Sport Boys / FC Cajamarca)
- 0.87 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Sport Boys / FC Cajamarca)
- 0.85 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sport Boys goals. Columns: FC Cajamarca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sport Boys | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| FC Cajamarca | 16% | 6.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sport Boys or draw) | 84% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Cajamarca) | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sport Boys win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sport Boys and FC Cajamarca recent form
Sport Boys
2W 1D 3L
FC Cajamarca
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sport Boys at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-2
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Cajamarca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-7
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 7 penalties (43%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sport Boys at home only, FC Cajamarca away only.
Sport Boys vs FC Cajamarca head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sport Boys 0 · draws 0 · FC Cajamarca 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | FC Cajamarca | 3-2 | Sport Boys | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Atletico Grau v ADT — match page 2026-10-23
- Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Cusco vs Sporting Cristal — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College 2026-10-25
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano 2026-10-25
- UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-10-25
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Sport Boys, previous: Juan Pablo II College – Sport Boys, 2026-10-17
- Sport Boys, next: Universitario vs Sport Boys prediction
- FC Cajamarca, previous: FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua analysis
- FC Cajamarca, next: FC Cajamarca vs UTC Cajamarca prediction