Cusco vs Sporting Cristal preview
In the upcoming match between Cusco and Sporting Cristal, the 1X2 probabilities show Cusco at 40%, Sporting Cristal at 33%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with an 8% chance. The model also indicates a 60% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score.
Cusco's recent form has been mixed with L-L-W-L-W-W, while Sporting Cristal has performed strongly with W-W-W-W-W-L. The expected goals are 1.47 for Cusco and 1.63 for Sporting Cristal. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting that while predictions are made, there is room for uncertainty.
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal: model vs market
| Source | Cusco | Draw | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cusco, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cusco | 2.20 | 1.91 | -0.29 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.53 | +0.18 |
| Sporting Cristal | 3.04 | 3.60 | +0.56 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cusco and Sporting Cristal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Cusco / Sporting Cristal)
- 1.09 / 1.43
- Defence rating (Cusco / Sporting Cristal)
- 1.08 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cusco goals. Columns: Sporting Cristal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cusco vs Sporting Cristal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cusco | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Sporting Cristal | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cusco or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Cristal) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cusco win by 2+ | 16% | 6.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cusco and Sporting Cristal recent form
Cusco
3W 0D 3L
Sporting Cristal
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cusco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-3
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.79
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
Sporting Cristal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-9
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.13
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Cusco at home only, Sporting Cristal away only.
Cusco vs Sporting Cristal head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cusco 2 · draws 1 · Sporting Cristal 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sporting Cristal | 2-2 | Cusco | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-12-14 | Cusco | 2-0 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-12-11 | Sporting Cristal | 1-0 | Cusco | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-09-14 | Cusco | 3-2 | Sporting Cristal | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-04-13 | Sporting Cristal | 1-0 | Cusco | Peru Primera División |
Other Clausura - 13 fixtures
- UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Atletico Grau v ADT — match page 2026-10-23
- Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Universitario vs Juan Pablo II College 2026-10-25
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano 2026-10-25
- UCV Moquegua v Alianza Lima — match page 2026-10-25
- Sport Boys v FC Cajamarca — match page 2026-10-25
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Cusco, previous: Sport Huancayo – Cusco, 2026-10-16
- Cusco, next: Club Deportivo Los Chankas – Cusco, 2026-10-28
- Sporting Cristal, previous: Sporting Cristal v Comerciantes Unidos analysis
- Sporting Cristal, next: Sporting Cristal – Alianza Lima, 2026-10-28